# El Niño Dryness Tests Both Colombia Arabica and Vietnam Robusta

> Colombia's coffee output is running about 10% behind the prior year after heavy rain disrupted the harvest. Colombia's more concentrated flowering could help ease tight high-quality arabica supply if fruit development avoids El Niño dryness. Heat in Brazil's Rondônia state and Vietnam's history of long dry spells keep robusta weather risk in focus.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T15:13:36.082Z
- Category: weather · region Colombia and Vietnam · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98034-el-nino-dryness-tests-both-colombia-arabica-and-vietnam-robusta
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Dry El Niño conditions during flowering could tighten arabica and robusta supply and support coffee prices. Brazil's arabica crop is currently in very good condition, which partly offsets the risk.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-05-25 | [El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35869-el-nino-seen-posing-larger-risk-for-robusta-coffee-less-to-arabica-reuters.md) | -4.4% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2026-01-23 | [Argentina Dryness Continues to Expand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13814-argentina-dryness-continues-to-expand.md) | +1.6% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2020-05-01 | [South America Hits Dryness Bump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52958-south-america-hits-dryness-bump.md) | +1.3% | +2.2% |
| CORN | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2026-07-13 | [In Brazil, El Niño Could Delay Grain Planting, Reduce Harvests and Disrupt Livestock Farming - 13/07/2026 - Business - Folha](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13427-in-brazil-el-nino-could-delay-grain-planting-reduce-harvests-and-disrupt.md) | +1.1% | -0.6% |
| SOY | 2023-05-25 | [El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35869-el-nino-seen-posing-larger-risk-for-robusta-coffee-less-to-arabica-reuters.md) | +0.4% | +12.8% |
| SOY | 2026-01-23 | [Argentina Dryness Continues to Expand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13814-argentina-dryness-continues-to-expand.md) | +0.8% | +6.9% |
| SOY | 2020-05-01 | [South America Hits Dryness Bump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52958-south-america-hits-dryness-bump.md) | -1.0% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/el-nino-dryness-tests-both-colombia-arabica-and-vietnam-robusta/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.