# NOAA's November Update: What El Niño Means for Cocoa Crop Risk and Rising Stocks

> NOAA's 12 November discussion kept an El Niño Advisory, with the Niño-3.4 anomaly rising from +2.1°C in October to +2.5°C in November. The probability of a historic event fell, from 83% to about 60% for October–December 2026. The article notes that Ivorian crop warnings and rising warehouse stocks point in different directions for cocoa.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T15:13:35.921Z
- Category: weather · region West Africa · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98032-noaa-s-november-update-what-el-nino-means-for-cocoa-crop-risk-and-rising-stocks
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Weather risk to West African cocoa could tighten supply later, but current stock building and the uncertain timing of any crop loss limit the near-term price impact. No tracked feed commodity is directly affected.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-11-14 | [November 2024 ENSO update: ask me anything \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27324-november-2024-enso-update-ask-me-anything-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| CORN | 2026-05-01 | ["Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19634-super-el-nino-talk-grows-what-it-means-for-u-s-farmers.md) | -1.4% | +0.1% |
| CORN | 2023-05-05 | [What an El Niño could mean for food prices - EPIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35868-what-an-el-nino-could-mean-for-food-prices-epic.md) | -0.2% | -7.5% |
| CORN | 2021-10-19 | [La Niña Is Back—What That Means for North and South American Crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44469-la-nina-is-back-what-that-means-for-north-and-south-american-crops.md) | +0.7% | +10.3% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| SOY | 2024-11-14 | [November 2024 ENSO update: ask me anything \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27324-november-2024-enso-update-ask-me-anything-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -1.4% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2023-05-05 | [What an El Niño could mean for food prices - EPIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35868-what-an-el-nino-could-mean-for-food-prices-epic.md) | -0.4% | -6.6% |
| SOY | 2021-10-19 | [La Niña Is Back—What That Means for North and South American Crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44469-la-nina-is-back-what-that-means-for-north-and-south-american-crops.md) | +1.3% | +2.9% |

## Sources

- cocoamarkethub.com: https://cocoamarkethub.com/live-desk/noaa-cocoa-crop-risk-inventory-crosscurrents-november-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.