# IEA sees oil market swing to 1.7 million bpd Q4 surplus as Gulf exports rebound

> The IEA's November Oil Market Report expects global supply to average about 105 million barrels a day in Q4 2026, roughly 1.7 million above demand. It reversed its earlier forecast of a year-end deficit as Gulf crude exports recovered to about 82% of pre-war volumes.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T15:13:20.853Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98029-iea-sees-oil-market-swing-to-1-7-million-bpd-q4-surplus-as-gulf-exports-rebound
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

A swing from deficit to surplus removes the tightness that supported prices and points to downward pressure on crude and related fuel prices into year-end.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -2.2% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2024-09-12 | [Oil Market Report - September 2024 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10167-oil-market-report-september-2024-iea.md) | +5.1% | +9.0% |
| BRENT | 2020-04-15 | [Oil Market Report - April 2020 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4479-oil-market-report-april-2020-iea.md) | -47.7% | +11.5% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-08 | [Oil Market Report - August 2019 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10825-oil-market-report-august-2019-iea.md) | +5.5% | +9.1% |
| BRENT | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -4.5% | -0.3% |
| WTI | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| WTI | 2024-09-12 | [Oil Market Report - September 2024 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10167-oil-market-report-september-2024-iea.md) | +5.3% | +8.4% |
| WTI | 2020-04-15 | [Oil Market Report - April 2020 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4479-oil-market-report-april-2020-iea.md) | -32.0% | +25.9% |

## Sources

- economymiddleeast.com: https://economymiddleeast.com/news/iea-sees-oil-market-swing-to-1-7-million-bpd-q4-surplus-as-gulf-exports-rebound/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.