# Conab: climate pressures projections for Brazil's grain harvest

> CONAB cut its 2026/27 Brazilian grain crop projection from 367.1 million to 336.1 million tons, citing climate effects. The agency and IBGE both point to El Niño affecting rainfall and crop yields. IBGE expects a 2.6% decline in the 2027 harvest.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T15:12:13.763Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/98017-conab-climate-pressures-projections-for-brazil-s-grain-harvest
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A lower Brazilian crop forecast tightens export supplies of soybeans and corn, which supports prices. El Niño risk adds to the downside in yields.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2022-01-17 | [Brazil’s Drought Reduces Grain Harvest Forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13749-brazil-s-drought-reduces-grain-harvest-forecasts.md) | +3.4% | +15.7% |
| SOY | 2023-12-11 | [Brazil reduces estimates for grain harvest amid extreme weather events](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13603-brazil-reduces-estimates-for-grain-harvest-amid-extreme-weather-events.md) | +0.9% | -4.8% |
| SOY | 2023-12-12 | [Brazil Cuts Its Soybean and Corn Production Projections for 2024 - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13604-brazil-cuts-its-soybean-and-corn-production-projections-for-2024-farmdoc-daily.md) | -0.7% | -8.0% |
| SOY | 2024-05-02 | [Heavy rains in big Brazil farm state disrupt soy, corn harvests in final stages](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6452-heavy-rains-in-big-brazil-farm-state-disrupt-soy-corn-harvests-in-final-stages.md) | +4.9% | +4.7% |
| SOY | 2019-01-02 | [U.S. grains: Soy up on crop stress in Brazil, hopes for China talks - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61132-u-s-grains-soy-up-on-crop-stress-in-brazil-hopes-for-china-talks-agcanada.md) | +2.7% | +4.4% |
| CORN | 2022-01-17 | [Brazil’s Drought Reduces Grain Harvest Forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13749-brazil-s-drought-reduces-grain-harvest-forecasts.md) | -0.5% | +6.0% |
| CORN | 2023-12-11 | [Brazil reduces estimates for grain harvest amid extreme weather events](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13603-brazil-reduces-estimates-for-grain-harvest-amid-extreme-weather-events.md) | +1.0% | -0.7% |
| CORN | 2026-04-06 | [Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13439-climate-concerns-second-corn-crop-and-soybean-harvest-advances-to-82-in-brazil.md) | -1.8% | +2.8% |

## Sources

- metropoles.com: https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/conab-clima-pressiona-projecoes-para-colheita-de-graos-no-brasil

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.