# ASAP Agri estimates Ukraine's agro exports at 29-47 mln t depending on Greater Odesa port operations

> ASAP Agri projects Ukraine could export 29 to 47 million tonnes of agricultural products in 2026/27, depending on sea logistics and whether Greater Odesa ports resume operations. Under the most optimistic scenario, deep-water exports could reach 17 million tonnes, while rail exports are estimated at 14 million tonnes. Early signs of preparation for resumed seaborne shipments include Handysize vessel offers from Odesa to Egypt at about $130/t including a ballast bonus, up from $23/t in July.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T13:38:02.488Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97916-asap-agri-estimates-ukraine-s-agro-exports-at-29-47-mln-t-depending-on-greater
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Ukrainian export capacity tightens Black Sea supply for importers such as Egypt and supports Black Sea grain and freight prices, while any port reopening would add supply and ease freight costs.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- OCEANFRT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-10-23 | [Resuming attacks on Ukrainian grain exports threatens 1% of dry bulk market: BIMCO \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14263-resuming-attacks-on-ukrainian-grain-exports-threatens-1-of-dry-bulk-market.md) | +0.3% | -1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-26 | [Ukraine traders seek other export options as grain corridor hopes fade - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14387-ukraine-traders-seek-other-export-options-as-grain-corridor-hopes-fade.md) | +7.1% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-06-29 | [Argentine trucker protest slashes grains delivery, threatening exports and milling \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14024-argentine-trucker-protest-slashes-grains-delivery-threatening-exports-and.md) | -8.7% | -16.2% |
| WHEAT | 2020-04-28 | [Ukraine's Apr 18-24 sea port grain exports down 36% wk/wk — Latifundist.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53494-ukraine-s-apr-18-24-sea-port-grain-exports-down-36-wk-wk-latifundist-com.md) | +2.8% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-01-05 | [Ukraine's corn exporters hope for acceleration in ship inspections in 2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14423-ukraine-s-corn-exporters-hope-for-acceleration-in-ship-inspections-in-2023.md) | -2.7% | -3.0% |
| CORN | 2024-10-23 | [Resuming attacks on Ukrainian grain exports threatens 1% of dry bulk market: BIMCO \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14263-resuming-attacks-on-ukrainian-grain-exports-threatens-1-of-dry-bulk-market.md) | -0.6% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2023-06-26 | [Ukraine traders seek other export options as grain corridor hopes fade - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14387-ukraine-traders-seek-other-export-options-as-grain-corridor-hopes-fade.md) | -8.7% | -0.3% |
| CORN | 2025-09-19 | [Panamaxes are becoming more expensive due to activity in the ports of Great Odesa \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23078-panamaxes-are-becoming-more-expensive-due-to-activity-in-the-ports-of-great.md) | +0.2% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- latifundist.com: https://latifundist.com/novosti/71669-asap-agri-otsiniv-agroeksport-ukrayini-u-2947-mln-t-zalezhno-vid-roboti-portiv-velikoyi-odesi

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.