# Goldman sees Gulf LNG disruption pushing TTF gas prices higher

> Goldman Sachs projects European gas could reach 150 EUR/MWh in Q1 2027 if Persian Gulf LNG exports average 25-30% of pre-war levels and Europe has a colder-than-average winter. Under a scenario where Gulf exports stay near 35% of pre-war levels, the bank sees TTF averaging 104 EUR/MWh in 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T12:10:42.842Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97678-goldman-sees-gulf-lng-disruption-pushing-ttf-gas-prices-higher
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

The forecast links European gas prices to the pace of Gulf LNG recovery, so sustained supply loss would keep gas-based fertilizer and processing costs elevated. The projections are scenario-based rather than a confirmed move.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2024-10-29 | [TTF prices surge to their highest level \| European Gas Hub](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8118-ttf-prices-surge-to-their-highest-level-european-gas-hub.md) | -10.5% | +41.4% |
| NATGAS | 2026-03-03 | [Global oil and gas prices soar as Iran crisis disrupts shipping, production \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8777-global-oil-and-gas-prices-soar-as-iran-crisis-disrupts-shipping-production.md) | +7.0% | -3.1% |
| NATGAS | 2021-02-04 | [China gas shortage could be causing a shortage of fertiliser for farmers, pushing prices higher - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48946-china-gas-shortage-could-be-causing-a-shortage-of-fertiliser-for-farmers.md) | +14.2% | -4.5% |
| NATGAS | 2026-08-24 | [US LNG exports set for endurance test as high gas prices bite \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18057-us-lng-exports-set-for-endurance-test-as-high-gas-prices-bite-reuters.md) | +2.1% | +3.1% |
| NATGAS | 2024-08-29 | [Higher Natural Gas Prices Seen This Winter in Europe as Geopolitical Complications Mount](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28999-higher-natural-gas-prices-seen-this-winter-in-europe-as-geopolitical.md) | +11.7% | +36.8% |
| UREA | 2026-03-03 | [Global oil and gas prices soar as Iran crisis disrupts shipping, production \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8777-global-oil-and-gas-prices-soar-as-iran-crisis-disrupts-shipping-production.md) | +10.0% | +19.1% |
| UREA | 2021-02-04 | [China gas shortage could be causing a shortage of fertiliser for farmers, pushing prices higher - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48946-china-gas-shortage-could-be-causing-a-shortage-of-fertiliser-for-farmers.md) | -5.3% | +1.7% |
| UREA | 2026-09-01 | [Why higher fertilizer prices are here to stay](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17863-why-higher-fertilizer-prices-are-here-to-stay.md) | +1.7% | +3.9% |

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-sees-gulf-lng-disruption-pushing-ttf-gas-prices-higher-93CH-5024622

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.