# World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover, IEA says

> The International Energy Agency said the world oil market will return to surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with supply averaging 105 million bpd, 1.7 million bpd above forecast demand. It also detailed 71 million barrels of remaining emergency reserve releases, including 15 million barrels of diesel. Brent was last down 0.1% at $95.71 a barrel after the report.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T12:10:20.790Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97672-world-oil-market-is-returning-to-surplus-as-gulf-exports-recover-iea-says
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

A return to surplus as Gulf exports recover eases the tight supply that has supported crude and diesel prices since the Iran war began, pointing to lower energy input costs for feed producers and processors.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -2.2% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -4.5% | -0.3% |
| BRENT | 2018-10-11 | [OPEC says oil market well supplied, wary of 2019 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62457-opec-says-oil-market-well-supplied-wary-of-2019-surplus.md) | -4.2% | -14.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-04-26 | [Citi Says U.S. May Become World's Top Oil Exporter Next Year - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65668-citi-says-u-s-may-become-world-s-top-oil-exporter-next-year-bloomberg.md) | -0.9% | +7.2% |
| BRENT | 2025-11-13 | [Oil Market Report - November 2025 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22111-oil-market-report-november-2025-iea.md) | +2.2% | +0.6% |
| WTI | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| WTI | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -2.7% | +1.7% |
| WTI | 2018-10-11 | [OPEC says oil market well supplied, wary of 2019 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62457-opec-says-oil-market-well-supplied-wary-of-2019-surplus.md) | -4.8% | -15.7% |

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/world-oil-market-is-returning-to-surplus-as-gulf-exports-recoveriea-says-5024885

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.