# Africa must brace for a powerful El Niño

> NOAA gives the developing El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the 2026/27 Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, with a 69% probability of exceeding any event recorded since 1950 between October and December. Southern Africa faces heightened drought and extreme heat risk, while parts of East Africa could see above-normal rainfall and flooding.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T09:14:06.180Z
- Category: weather · region Africa · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97568-africa-must-brace-for-a-powerful-el-nino
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño raises the risk of drought-hit maize and other crop losses in southern Africa, which could lift regional feed grain import demand and prices. Effects elsewhere, including the South American and Asian crops, add to the weather premium across grains and oilseeds.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-08-10 | [El Niño forecast may mean better maize prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63455-el-nino-forecast-may-mean-better-maize-prices.md) | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| CORN | 2017-04-21 | [El Niño awaited, more corn for ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71341-el-nino-awaited-more-corn-for-ethanol.md) | +1.4% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| CORN | 2023-12-18 | [El Niño Fuels Crop Issues In Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13605-el-nino-fuels-crop-issues-in-brazil.md) | -1.5% | -3.8% |
| CORN | 2023-04-27 | [El Nino May Boost Soil Moisture in May for South American Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36317-el-nino-may-boost-soil-moisture-in-may-for-south-american-wheat.md) | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-11 | [El Niño Outlook for August 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69374-el-nino-outlook-for-august-2017.md) | +0.3% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2019-08-09 | [August 2019 El Niño Update-Stick a Fork in it - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57499-august-2019-el-nino-update-stick-a-fork-in-it-proag.md) | -0.2% | -2.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-08 | [El Niño winter comes for wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32049-el-nino-winter-comes-for-wheat.md) | -2.5% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- agrimonitor.com.na: http://www.agrimonitor.com.na/agri-monitor/africa-must-brace-for-a-powerful-el-nio-nmh017628-5-21716

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.