# Russian analysts do not expect Black Sea shipping to normalize before spring 2027

> SovEcon now expects Black Sea maritime traffic to stay disrupted until spring 2027, after inconclusive Ukraine, US and Russia talks in Abu Dhabi. It cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.7 mln tons to 36 mln tons. Russian Black Sea grain shipments are running at only about 100-200 thsd tons per month, with flows shifting to Baltic ports.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T09:07:37.077Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97477-russian-analysts-do-not-expect-black-sea-shipping-to-normalize-before-spring
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Russian export availability tightens global wheat supply and supports prices, while congestion on Baltic and rail routes adds freight cost and delay risk for buyers.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-31 | [Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14089-russian-grain-exports-shift-to-baltic-as-black-sea-trade-disrupted-reuters.md) | +2.4% | +6.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-28 | [Sources say that three Russian Black Sea terminals have restricted grain shipments by truck due to shipping risks.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14103-sources-say-that-three-russian-black-sea-terminals-have-restricted-grain.md) | -0.3% | +4.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-31 | [Despite Russia's Black Sea Decision, Grain Still Shipping Out of Ukrainian Ports Monday](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14451-despite-russia-s-black-sea-decision-grain-still-shipping-out-of-ukrainian-ports.md) | -5.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-25 | [Russia’s wheat exports to Egypt: Why shipping costs are rising despite lower prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18113-russia-s-wheat-exports-to-egypt-why-shipping-costs-are-rising-despite-lower.md) | +1.7% | +4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-22 | [Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14076-russian-grain-exports-collapse-fourfold-as-black-sea-ports-stall.md) | -0.7% | — |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/russian-analysts-do-not-expect-black-sea-shipping-to-normalize-before-spring-2027/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.