# El Niño: warnings over its impact on crops in Latin America and the Caribbean

> IICA analysis warns that the 2026-27 El Niño could significantly affect Latin American and Caribbean food systems, with productivity losses likely in Central America and the Caribbean. Argentina, Brazil and Chile could see historically favorable conditions for some crops. NOAA gives an 83% probability that the relative Oceanic Niño Index reaches +2.5 °C or more between October and December 2026.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T06:13:37.311Z
- Category: weather · region Latin America · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97262-el-nino-warnings-over-its-impact-on-crops-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Expected losses in Central America and the Caribbean could raise regional grain and feed import needs, while favorable conditions in Argentina and Brazil could add South American supply, which weighs on prices for soy and corn.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-03-21 | [El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers \| American Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31128-el-nino-s-impact-on-u-s-farmers-american-ag-network.md) | -1.4% | -6.2% |
| SOY | 2025-04-01 | [Estimating the Impact of Low Mississippi River Levels on Soybean Basis in the Midsouth \| Agriculture of America](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16456-estimating-the-impact-of-low-mississippi-river-levels-on-soybean-basis-in-the.md) | -3.1% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2023-08-31 | [El Nino should benefit South American crops \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13634-el-nino-should-benefit-south-american-crops-the-western-producer.md) | -2.6% | -5.8% |
| SOY | 2016-12-08 | [Good Weather and Crop Outlook in South America \| Hoosier Ag Today](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73326-good-weather-and-crop-outlook-in-south-america-hoosier-ag-today.md) | -2.4% | -6.0% |
| SOY | 2025-06-13 | [Argentina's Soybean Harvest Exceeds Forecast by 300,000 Tonnes; and other news about agribusiness in Latin America](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13852-argentina-s-soybean-harvest-exceeds-forecast-by-300-000-tonnes-and-other-news.md) | +2.5% | -4.3% |
| CORN | 2025-08-14 | [Indiana Corn, Soybean Crops Feel the Heat and Variability of Late Planting](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13068-indiana-corn-soybean-crops-feel-the-heat-and-variability-of-late-planting.md) | +1.1% | +4.8% |
| CORN | 2025-04-21 | [El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25021-el-nino-shift-impact-on-crop-futures-and-global-agricultural-outlook.md) | -0.1% | -5.5% |
| CORN | 2026-08-11 | [Climate risks in East Africa and Latin America; bumper crops in Southern Africa and Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17830-climate-risks-in-east-africa-and-latin-america-bumper-crops-in-southern-africa.md) | +3.6% | +11.8% |

## Sources

- aplica.com.ar: https://www.aplica.com.ar/post/el-ni%C3%B1o-alertan-por-su-impacto-en-los-cultivos-de-am%C3%A9rica-latina-y-el-caribe

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.