# At COP31, CGIAR report asks why early warnings of El Niño and fertilizer shocks rarely reach farmers in time

> CGIAR and partners launched The State of Early Warning Around the World at the COP31 Food & Agriculture Pavilion in Antalya on 11 November. The report argues that El Niño and fertilizer market disruptions are visible well in advance, but warnings and financing often fail to reach farmers before crises hit.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T06:13:37.226Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97261-at-cop31-cgiar-report-asks-why-early-warnings-of-el-nino-and-fertilizer-shocks
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The report is a policy commentary on preparedness rather than a new supply event, so it has little direct price effect. It does highlight that fertilizer disruptions compound El Niño risks for food production.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-04-01 | [US farmers to plant less corn as Iran war spikes fertilizer prices \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19743-us-farmers-to-plant-less-corn-as-iran-war-spikes-fertilizer-prices-reuters.md) | -1.7% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2025-04-30 | [Increased corn acres driving higher fertilizer prices; farmers may see fuel price relief](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4277-increased-corn-acres-driving-higher-fertilizer-prices-farmers-may-see-fuel.md) | -1.7% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2024-03-08 | [PF Report Reaction: USDA cuts global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31133-pf-report-reaction-usda-cuts-global-ending-stocks-for-corn-soybeans-wheat-and.md) | -0.3% | -3.1% |
| CORN | 2023-03-08 | [Report snapshot: higher U.S. and global corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36816-report-snapshot-higher-u-s-and-global-corn-ending-stocks-pro-farmer.md) | -1.6% | -0.6% |
| CORN | 2022-04-08 | [PF Report Reaction: U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks higher than expected - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41798-pf-report-reaction-u-s-corn-wheat-ending-stocks-higher-than-expected-pro-farmer.md) | -0.7% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2026-04-01 | [US farmers to plant less corn as Iran war spikes fertilizer prices \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19743-us-farmers-to-plant-less-corn-as-iran-war-spikes-fertilizer-prices-reuters.md) | -0.8% | +1.0% |
| SOY | 2024-03-08 | [PF Report Reaction: USDA cuts global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31133-pf-report-reaction-usda-cuts-global-ending-stocks-for-corn-soybeans-wheat-and.md) | +2.1% | +2.4% |
| SOY | 2023-03-08 | [Report snapshot: higher U.S. and global corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36816-report-snapshot-higher-u-s-and-global-corn-ending-stocks-pro-farmer.md) | -1.7% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- agronewstoday.com: https://agronewstoday.com/article/cgiar-iwmi-early-warning-report-cop31-el-nino-fertilizer

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.