# US Department of Agriculture lowers forecast for Russian wheat exports to 39 million tonnes

> The USDA's November report cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 1 million tonnes to 39 million, while leaving the crop at 88 million tonnes. It raised Russian ending stocks to 20.09 million tonnes and cut Ukrainian wheat exports by 1 million tonnes to 11.5 million, citing continued Black Sea shipping constraints.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T06:12:27.548Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97249-us-department-of-agriculture-lowers-forecast-for-russian-wheat-exports-to-39
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Russian and Ukrainian exports reduce supply available to importers, which supports wheat prices. The offset is a higher USDA global production estimate and larger Russian stocks, which limits the price gain.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-24 | [Australian 2017 wheat crop forecast to reach 24 million tonnes: USDA report - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71469-australian-2017-wheat-crop-forecast-to-reach-24-million-tonnes-usda-report.md) | +2.4% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-13 | [European soft wheat production forecast at 134.5 million tonnes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29700-european-soft-wheat-production-forecast-at-134-5-million-tonnes.md) | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-09-19 | [France lowers soft wheat harvest and export forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28264-france-lowers-soft-wheat-harvest-and-export-forecasts.md) | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-01-18 | [Where did 5 million tonnes of Australian wheat go? - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66946-where-did-5-million-tonnes-of-australian-wheat-go-grain-central.md) | +2.9% | +5.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-30 | [Russian 2026/27 Wheat Export Forecast Cut by 4.7 MMT - The Sizov Report blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14084-russian-2026-27-wheat-export-forecast-cut-by-4-7-mmt-the-sizov-report-blog.md) | -2.5% | +1.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-07-30 | [A new decline in crop forecasts for the US, Canada and Russia continued to raise wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46103-a-new-decline-in-crop-forecasts-for-the-us-canada-and-russia-continued-to-raise.md) | +2.5% | +6.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-12-11 | [Australian wheat export forecast cut, imports tripled: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55534-australian-wheat-export-forecast-cut-imports-tripled-wasde-grain-central.md) | +12.3% | +17.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-03-31 | [CRMAgri - Latest - USDA Highlights: Wheat prices gain after US sowings forecast at lowest on record](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20204-crmagri-latest-usda-highlights-wheat-prices-gain-after-us-sowings-forecast-at.md) | -3.0% | +11.3% |

## Sources

- agroexpert.press: https://agroexpert.press/en/news-en/us-department-of-agriculture-lowers-forecast-for-russian-wheat-exports-to-39-million-tonnes/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.