# Oil supply recovers, but 'no war, no peace' keeps escalation risks elevated

> Brent has fallen about 18% this month and settled in the low $90s, near a two-month low, after the US midterm elections raised hopes of a diplomatic route with Iran. OPEC+ output is recovering strongly, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq reporting sharp October production gains. Talks between Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked, and attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure continue.

- Date: 2026-11-13 · published 2026-11-13T06:10:12.015Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97215-oil-supply-recovers-but-no-war-no-peace-keeps-escalation-risks-elevated
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Recovering Gulf supply and a possible return to surplus weigh on crude and diesel prices, but a breakdown in diplomacy or renewed attacks on shipping could cause a sharp reversal. Higher energy costs feed through to feed transport, fertilizer and processing costs.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-02-01 | [Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8794-oil-settles-down-over-4-on-us-iran-de-escalation-easing-supply-worries-reuters.md) | -3.1% | +0.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-10-29 | [US oil prices fall as investors gauge risks to Mideast supply By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/252-us-oil-prices-fall-as-investors-gauge-risks-to-mideast-supply-by-reuters.md) | -5.4% | — |
| BRENT | 2020-09-25 | [Oil rally stalls on risk of new supply - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51281-oil-rally-stalls-on-risk-of-new-supply-moneyweb.md) | -3.0% | +0.7% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-10 | [Oil dives, settles down 11% after Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6628-oil-dives-settles-down-11-after-trump-predicts-middle-east-de-escalation-reuters.md) | +4.1% | +27.2% |
| BRENT | 2022-11-18 | [European refiners oversupplied as oil shortage fears subside](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38870-european-refiners-oversupplied-as-oil-shortage-fears-subside.md) | -5.4% | -9.5% |
| WTI | 2026-02-01 | [Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8794-oil-settles-down-over-4-on-us-iran-de-escalation-easing-supply-worries-reuters.md) | -1.6% | +9.9% |
| WTI | 2026-10-29 | [US oil prices fall as investors gauge risks to Mideast supply By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/252-us-oil-prices-fall-as-investors-gauge-risks-to-mideast-supply-by-reuters.md) | -2.3% | — |
| WTI | 2020-09-25 | [Oil rally stalls on risk of new supply - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51281-oil-rally-stalls-on-risk-of-new-supply-moneyweb.md) | -4.0% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- worldports.org: https://www.worldports.org/oil-supply-recovers-but-no-war-no-peace-keeps-escalation-risks-elevated/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.