# NOAA raises the chance of a historic El Niño in 2026 to 60%

> NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on November 12 that El Niño is intensifying in the equatorial Pacific, with a probability above 79% of strong to very strong intensity through January-March 2027. Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4°C in parts of the eastern Pacific, and subsurface anomalies were above 10°C.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T03:12:59.545Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97082-noaa-raises-the-chance-of-a-historic-el-nino-in-2026-to-60
- Commodities: [Fishmeal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FISHMEAL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño typically brings drought risk to Australia, India and Southeast Asia and dryness to parts of South America, while reducing Peruvian anchovy catches that feed fishmeal supply, supporting prices for protein meals and grains.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- FISHMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | +1.4% | -13.7% |
| RICE | 2023-02-27 | [What if El Nino materialises in 2023? - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37250-what-if-el-nino-materialises-in-2023-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +1.2% | +6.4% |
| RICE | 2023-11-01 | [El Niño's Rain Games: A Global Hunger Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33099-el-nino-s-rain-games-a-global-hunger-crisis.md) | +1.2% | +8.0% |
| RICE | 2023-07-11 | [Rice Soars to Two-Year High in Asia on El Niño Drought Risks - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5208-rice-soars-to-two-year-high-in-asia-on-el-nino-drought-risks-bloomberg.md) | -19.6% | -16.6% |
| RICE | 2024-03-27 | [DSWD DROMIC Report #12 on the Effects of El Niño as of 27 March 2024, 6PM - Philippines \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31127-dswd-dromic-report-12-on-the-effects-of-el-nino-as-of-27-march-2024-6pm.md) | -1.7% | +14.3% |
| CORN | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -3.4% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2026-10-02 | [Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12955-record-el-nino-behind-historic-rains-stalling-harvest-across-the-u-s-agweb.md) | -1.6% | -7.0% |
| CORN | 2026-10-08 | [El Niño raises risks for agricultural commodities in the 4th quarter - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17054-el-nino-raises-risks-for-agricultural-commodities-in-the-4th-quarter-revista.md) | -2.4% | -5.9% |

## Sources

- revistacultivar.com: https://revistacultivar.com/news/NOAA-raises-the-chance-of-a-historic-El-Ni%C3%B1o-in-2026-to-60.

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.