# Security and logistics weigh on Ukraine wheat export outlook

> The USDA's November forecast puts Ukrainian wheat exports at 11.5 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes below the previous estimate, even though its Ukrainian wheat crop forecast rose 0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes. Global wheat production was raised 5.12 million tonnes to 827.51 million tonnes, while the global export forecast was cut to 208.66 million tonnes, with Russia and Ukraine each reduced by 1 million tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T03:11:51.803Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/97071-security-and-logistics-weigh-on-ukraine-wheat-export-outlook
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Black Sea export flows and rising Ukrainian stocks (ending stocks up 1.2 million tonnes to 7.3 million) point to a bearish-leaning balance for feed wheat, though higher global output and stocks limit upside for wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-09 | [Wheat stocks hit 5-year high as USDA holds export outlook steady](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19666-wheat-stocks-hit-5-year-high-as-usda-holds-export-outlook-steady.md) | +3.1% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-09-30 | [Ukraine exported almost 6 mln tons of wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14273-ukraine-exported-almost-6-mln-tons-of-wheat.md) | +0.6% | -6.3% |
| WHEAT | 2019-09-19 | [Strategie Grains Raises EU Wheat Harvest, Export Outlook Again \| ESM Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57024-strategie-grains-raises-eu-wheat-harvest-export-outlook-again-esm-magazine.md) | +2.2% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2025-01-22 | [2025 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook \| CAES Field Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26478-2025-corn-soybean-and-wheat-outlook-caes-field-report.md) | +3.1% | +5.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-01-28 | [EU cuts 2021/22 wheat crop forecast, keeps export outlook 28.01.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43077-eu-cuts-2021-22-wheat-crop-forecast-keeps-export-outlook-28-01-2022.md) | -1.8% | +2.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-04-09 | [Wheat stocks hit 5-year high as USDA holds export outlook steady](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19666-wheat-stocks-hit-5-year-high-as-usda-holds-export-outlook-steady.md) | +5.1% | +13.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-09-30 | [Ukraine exported almost 6 mln tons of wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14273-ukraine-exported-almost-6-mln-tons-of-wheat.md) | +3.7% | -0.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-10-22 | [Wheat markets sink as weak exports outweigh drought concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/445-wheat-markets-sink-as-weak-exports-outweigh-drought-concerns.md) | -3.4% | — |

## Sources

- agroreview.com: https://agroreview.com/en/newsen/crops/usda-lowers-forecast-for-ukrainian/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.