# Why didn't the positive IPCA surprise stop the dollar's surge and the stock market's fall?

> The dollar jumped 1.6% against the real to R$5.6518, its highest level since June 2, 2025, while the Ibovespa fell. Investors reacted to disappointment over the fiscal adjustment package, which was seen as insufficient to stabilize public debt, and to higher US interest rates after hawkish Federal Reserve comments and strong US inflation data. The real posted the weakest performance among the 33 most liquid currencies.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T00:11:51.173Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/96705-why-didn-t-the-positive-ipca-surprise-stop-the-dollar-s-surge-and-the-stock
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Sustained real weakness lowers the dollar cost of Brazilian feed ingredients such as soybean meal and corn, which can draw export demand and pressure world prices. Higher US rates also raise the cost of dollar financing for importers.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2020-03-19 | [Why the U.S. dollar’s relentless rally is causing pain for emerging markets - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7018-why-the-u-s-dollar-s-relentless-rally-is-causing-pain-for-emerging-markets.md) | -1.1% | +2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2021-01-22 | [Latam FX falls as dollar rises, Brazil real lags peers for the week - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49387-latam-fx-falls-as-dollar-rises-brazil-real-lags-peers-for-the-week-markets.md) | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-23 | [Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28517-dollar-rises-more-than-1-at-the-start-of-a-week-marked-by-inflation-data-in.md) | -1.1% | +3.9% |
| USDBRL | 2020-03-19 | [A global rush into the US dollar is driving extreme market moves and a temporary shortage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6274-a-global-rush-into-the-us-dollar-is-driving-extreme-market-moves-and-a.md) | -1.1% | +2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2018-08-23 | [Here’s how Jackson Hole could impact the dollar, bonds and emerging markets - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63695-here-s-how-jackson-hole-could-impact-the-dollar-bonds-and-emerging-markets.md) | +1.2% | +0.2% |

## Sources

- valorinveste.globo.com: https://valorinveste.globo.com/mercados/renda-variavel/bolsas-e-indices/noticia/2026/11/12/por-que-a-surpresa-positiva-no-ipca-nao-impediu-a-disparada-do-dolar-e-a-queda-da-bolsa.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.