# Drought and fertilizer shortages could cut Indonesia's palm oil production by 3 mln tons

> GAPKI warned that Indonesia's palm oil output could fall by 3 million tons in 2027 due to El Niño-driven drought, plantation fires and smallholders cutting fertilizer use. Production rose 8.4% in January-September 2026 to 47 million tons, and exports were up 9.6%.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-13T00:06:45.645Z
- Category: weather · region Indonesia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/96571-drought-and-fertilizer-shortages-could-cut-indonesia-s-palm-oil-production-by-3
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A 3-million-ton drop in Indonesian output would tighten global vegetable oil supply, which is likely to lift palm oil prices. Fertilizer shortages add to the risk of lower yields over several seasons.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2016-12-15 | [Drought cuts Malaysian palm oil production 6% in November  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73574-drought-cuts-malaysian-palm-oil-production-6-in-november-the-daily-digest.md) | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-07-01 | [El Niño impact on Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production \| Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18907-el-nino-impact-on-malaysian-and-indonesian-palm-oil-production-report.md) | +0.6% | +0.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-29 | [Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser.md) | +2.8% | -1.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-28 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18012-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says.md) | +4.5% | +1.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-02 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says - MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17547-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says-mpoc.md) | -0.5% | -4.3% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/drought-and-fertilizer-shortages-could-cut-indonesias-palm-oil-production-by-3-mln-tons/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.