# Euro’s Breakdown Is Becoming a Politics Trade, Not Just a Rates Trade | Investing.com

> The euro fell to nearly $1.1160, a 17-month low, in thin Asian trading as political concerns in France weighed on it. The French-German 10-year premium is nearly 150 basis points. Markets have cut the odds of an October Fed hike to under 20% from about 70% a week earlier, and Spain's government lost a housing vote and called an election.

- Date: 2026-10-02 · published 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Eurozone · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9655-euro-s-breakdown-is-becoming-a-politics-trade-not-just-a-rates-trade-investing
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Shifting Fed expectations change the outlook for dollar strength, which affects dollar-priced feed commodities and import costs for non-US buyers. Euro political risk also weighs on European currency and feed-buying power.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: neutral
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2024-04-17 | [A falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest headache \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30944-a-falling-euro-is-not-the-ecb-s-biggest-headache-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.6% | +1.8% |
| EURUSD | 2019-03-06 | [Will The ECB Crush The Euro? \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60314-will-the-ecb-crush-the-euro-investing-com.md) | -0.2% | -1.0% |
| EURUSD | 2022-09-09 | [EUR USD: Euro Trading Is All About the Energy Crisis, Not ECB Rate Hikes - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39799-eur-usd-euro-trading-is-all-about-the-energy-crisis-not-ecb-rate-hikes-bloomberg.md) | +0.4% | -1.5% |
| EURUSD | 2019-09-30 | [NewsBreak: Euro Hits New 2019 Low After German CPI Falls Below 1% By Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57279-newsbreak-euro-hits-new-2019-low-after-german-cpi-falls-below-1-by-investing-com.md) | +0.3% | +1.4% |
| EURUSD | 2025-10-31 | [EUR/USD Faces Pressure as ECB Dovish Tilt Raises Odds of a 2026 Rate Cut \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22636-eur-usd-faces-pressure-as-ecb-dovish-tilt-raises-odds-of-a-2026-rate-cut.md) | -0.2% | +0.5% |
| DXY | 2017-03-15 | [Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71924-will-a-fed-rate-hike-boost-the-price-of-oil-investing-com.md) | -1.5% | -1.3% |
| DXY | 2017-10-30 | [Trading The FOMC Interest Rate Decision, November 1, 2017 \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68660-trading-the-fomc-interest-rate-decision-november-1-2017-investing-com.md) | -0.2% | -1.6% |
| DXY | 2018-02-11 | [ECB concerned about U.S. political influence on exchange rates: Nowotny](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66703-ecb-concerned-about-u-s-political-influence-on-exchange-rates-nowotny.md) | -1.1% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/analysis/euros-breakdown-is-becoming-a-politics-trade-not-just-a-rates-trade-200688952

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.