# USDA has lowered its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 11.5 million metric tons

> In its November WASDE report, the USDA cut its 2026/27 Ukrainian wheat export forecast by 1 million tons to 11.5 million tons, citing Black Sea shipping restrictions. It raised the production forecast to 26.5 million tons and lifted ending stocks to 7.3 million tons.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T21:11:56.166Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/96528-usda-has-lowered-its-forecast-for-ukrainian-wheat-exports-to-11-5-million
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Ukrainian export availability tightens global wheat supply and supports prices, although higher output and stocks limit the upside. The cut adds to Black Sea logistics pressure already visible in world wheat trade.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-02 | [Experts have lowered the forecast for the soft wheat harvest in the EU](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32067-experts-have-lowered-the-forecast-for-the-soft-wheat-harvest-in-the-eu.md) | -2.8% | -2.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-21 | [The forecast for the soft wheat harvest in France has been reduced to 30.8 million tons.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18285-the-forecast-for-the-soft-wheat-harvest-in-france-has-been-reduced-to-30-8.md) | -1.8% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-24 | [Australian 2017 wheat crop forecast to reach 24 million tonnes: USDA report - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71469-australian-2017-wheat-crop-forecast-to-reach-24-million-tonnes-usda-report.md) | +2.4% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-13 | [European soft wheat production forecast at 134.5 million tonnes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29700-european-soft-wheat-production-forecast-at-134-5-million-tonnes.md) | -2.1% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- open4business.com.ua: https://open4business.com.ua/en/usda-has-lowered-its-forecast-for-ukrainian-wheat-exports-to-11-5-million-metric-tons/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.