# Historic El Niño could affect 2026/27 soybean crop

> NOAA's latest report keeps a forecast for a strong to very strong El Niño with a chance of historic intensity, affecting Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop. Central-North areas could approach 40 °C, while the South, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul face above-average rain. Drought risk is flagged for parts of the North and Northeast.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T21:11:33.615Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/96527-historic-el-nino-could-affect-2026-27-soybean-crop
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Brazil is the largest soybean exporter, so weather stress in key growing regions can tighten export supplies and support soybean and meal prices. The risk is still forecast, not realized.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2022-04-05 | [FEATURE: 'Perfect storm' hampers Argentina's 2021-22 soybean crop start](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4032-feature-perfect-storm-hampers-argentina-s-2021-22-soybean-crop-start.md) | +3.3% | +3.5% |
| SOY | 2021-07-23 | [How record heat could affect the U.S. corn and soybean markets - DTN](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45915-how-record-heat-could-affect-the-u-s-corn-and-soybean-markets-dtn.md) | +1.3% | -6.6% |
| SOY | 2023-04-24 | [Argentina Soybean Crop Smallest in 25 Years Due to Historic Drought - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13969-argentina-soybean-crop-smallest-in-25-years-due-to-historic-drought-agweb.md) | -2.6% | -11.9% |
| SOY | 2022-02-10 | [La Nina Continues to Affect South American Corn and Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13744-la-nina-continues-to-affect-south-american-corn-and-soybeans.md) | -0.5% | +6.6% |
| SOY | 2024-10-17 | [La Nina’s Return Could Herald Weak Brazilian Corn, Soybean Crops \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13541-la-nina-s-return-could-herald-weak-brazilian-corn-soybean-crops-cz-app.md) | +1.8% | +2.5% |

## Sources

- spacemoney.com.br: https://www.spacemoney.com.br/agronegocio/el-nino-safra-soja-2026-27-2/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.