# Will El Niño cause more damage in 2026? NOAA reinforces historic phenomenon, the strongest since 1950

> NOAA's latest update maintains a forecast for a strong to very strong El Niño, with a possibility of record intensity. Projections include temperatures near 40 °C in the Center-North, above-average rain in the South, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, and drought risk in parts of the North and Northeast. A possible transition to La Niña is flagged for spring 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T21:11:33.355Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/96523-will-el-nino-cause-more-damage-in-2026-noaa-reinforces-historic-phenomenon-the
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Heat and drought risk in central Brazil's main soybean and corn areas, combined with excess rain in the South, raises the risk of yield losses and supply uncertainty for soybean meal and corn. This supports firmer prices for these commodities.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -2.0% | -2.1% |
| SOY | 2026-10-02 | [Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12955-record-el-nino-behind-historic-rains-stalling-harvest-across-the-u-s-agweb.md) | +0.3% | -5.0% |
| SOY | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | -0.7% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -3.1% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -6.1% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2017-05-02 | [Storm Damages Midwest Wheat Crop; More Heavy Rain to Come](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7003-storm-damages-midwest-wheat-crop-more-heavy-rain-to-come.md) | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2023-10-03 | [Strong El Niño event will contribute to high food assistance needs through 2024 \| FEWS NET](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33548-strong-el-nino-event-will-contribute-to-high-food-assistance-needs-through-2024.md) | -0.4% | -2.9% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |

## Sources

- canalrural.com.br: https://www.canalrural.com.br/agricultura/projeto-soja-brasil/el-nino-vai-causar-mais-estragos-em-2026-noaa-reforca-fenomeno-historico-o-mais-forte-desde-1950/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.