# Israel-Iran war highlights Mideast's declining influence on oil prices | Reuters

> Oil prices dropped sharply after Iran's retaliation against a U.S. military base in Qatar was limited and telegraphed. Prices fell further after Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.

- Date: 2025-06-25 · published 2025-06-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9611-israel-iran-war-highlights-mideast-s-declining-influence-on-oil-prices-reuters
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

The episode suggests Middle East tensions have less lasting impact on crude than before, so risk premiums are unwinding and energy input costs for feed are easing.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-06-26 | 5 | -14.7% | -3.6 | Limited, telegraphed Iranian retaliation and the ceasefire announcement drove prices lower as the supply-risk premium faded. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-23 | 1 | -5.8% | -4.5 | Prices dropped because Iran's retaliation was limited and telegraphed, with the ceasefire announcement adding to the decline; the ceasefire part falls partly outside the June 23 window. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-25 | 5 | -13.5% | -3.7 | Oil dropped on the limited, telegraphed Iranian retaliation and then the ceasefire, which lowered the supply-risk premium. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-06-23 | [Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8643-oil-prices-drop-6-as-israel-iran-ceasefire-reduces-middle-east-supply-risk.md) | -11.9% | -9.9% |
| BRENT | 2026-05-05 | [Oil prices slide on reports US and Iran are nearing peace agreement \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9579-oil-prices-slide-on-reports-us-and-iran-are-nearing-peace-agreement-reuters.md) | -9.6% | -16.4% |
| BRENT | 2024-04-17 | [Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30931-oil-prices-fall-more-than-3-as-traders-discount-iran-israel-war-risk.md) | -2.5% | -9.9% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-22 | [Oil prices plunge 11% on US-Iran talks to resolve hostilities in the Middle East \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8153-oil-prices-plunge-11-on-us-iran-talks-to-resolve-hostilities-in-the-middle-east.md) | +1.5% | -13.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-24 | [Oil prices drop 2% as Iran considers US proposal to end war \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8151-oil-prices-drop-2-as-iran-considers-us-proposal-to-end-war-reuters.md) | +15.1% | +0.4% |
| WTI | 2025-06-23 | [Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8643-oil-prices-drop-6-as-israel-iran-ceasefire-reduces-middle-east-supply-risk.md) | -12.2% | -9.7% |
| WTI | 2026-05-05 | [Oil prices slide on reports US and Iran are nearing peace agreement \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9579-oil-prices-slide-on-reports-us-and-iran-are-nearing-peace-agreement-reuters.md) | -7.6% | -11.4% |
| WTI | 2024-04-17 | [Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30931-oil-prices-fall-more-than-3-as-traders-discount-iran-israel-war-risk.md) | -2.3% | -7.9% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/israel-iran-war-highlights-mideasts-declining-influence-oil-prices-2025-06-25/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.