# El Niño poses challenge to India's E20 ethanol target

> India's ethanol blending rate could fall to around 15% in the 2026-27 supply year as El Niño-related weather threatens maize, rice and other feedstocks. The government has excluded sugarcane-juice and B-heavy molasses-based ethanol from procurement tenders.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T18:09:54.871Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95851-el-nino-poses-challenge-to-india-s-e20-ethanol-target
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/c/ETHANOL.md)

## Why it matters

Tighter feedstock supply means India will buy more maize and rice for ethanol, lifting domestic grain prices and cutting its ethanol output, which weakens demand for feedstock and reduces crude import substitution.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- ETHANOL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-05-19 | [El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. \| Climate Change](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change.md) | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2017-04-21 | [El Niño awaited, more corn for ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71341-el-nino-awaited-more-corn-for-ethanol.md) | +1.4% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2021-12-14 | [Argentina exchange says dry summer poses 'big challenge' for soybeans, corn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14063-argentina-exchange-says-dry-summer-poses-big-challenge-for-soybeans-corn.md) | -3.7% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2024-11-21 | [Drought causes challenges for Kansas ethanol plant - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27465-drought-causes-challenges-for-kansas-ethanol-plant-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -3.5% | +1.6% |
| CORN | 2024-03-28 | [El Niño to La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31125-el-nino-to-la-nina.md) | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| RICE | 2023-09-30 | [India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34001-india-s-monsoon-rains-hit-five-year-low-due-to-el-nino.md) | +0.8% | +1.9% |
| RICE | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | +1.4% | -13.7% |
| RICE | 2023-10-30 | [El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity - NASA Science](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33546-el-nino-forecast-to-contribute-to-food-insecurity-nasa-science.md) | -0.0% | +6.3% |

## Sources

- agriinsite.com: https://agriinsite.com/el-nino-poses-challenge-to-indias-e20-ethanol-target/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.