# Inmet forecasts water deficit in Northeast Brazil between November and January

> Inmet's November agroclimatological bulletin projects soil water storage below 20% of available capacity in the Northeast semi-arid and coastal belt for November 2026 to January 2027. The deficits are highest in parts of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and the Submédio São Francisco. The bulletin warns the shortfall could delay corn planting and affect soybean flowering in Matopiba.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T15:11:35.715Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95705-inmet-forecasts-water-deficit-in-northeast-brazil-between-november-and-january
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A dry start to the season in Matopiba could cut Brazilian corn and soybean output from the northeast, adding modest support to soybean and corn prices. The effect is a seasonal forecast, so the price impact is likely limited unless rains fail again.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-01-29 | [Brazil Ends January Hot and Dry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60939-brazil-ends-january-hot-and-dry.md) | -0.5% | -2.1% |
| SOY | 2024-08-26 | [Hot and Dry Weather Forecast for Central Brazil's Planting Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13550-hot-and-dry-weather-forecast-for-central-brazil-s-planting-season.md) | +3.2% | +9.2% |
| SOY | 2025-10-07 | [October Weather in Brazil - Hotter and Dryer Than Normal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13469-october-weather-in-brazil-hotter-and-dryer-than-normal.md) | -1.0% | +10.0% |
| SOY | 2025-10-21 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for November-December-January 2025-2026](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22313-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-november-december-january-2025-2026.md) | +3.4% | +12.2% |
| SOY | 2023-12-26 | [Brazil Forecasts Push Grain Markets Higher \| Tuesday, December 26, 2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11280-brazil-forecasts-push-grain-markets-higher-tuesday-december-26-2023.md) | -2.0% | -4.6% |
| CORN | 2019-01-29 | [Brazil Ends January Hot and Dry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60939-brazil-ends-january-hot-and-dry.md) | -0.4% | +0.0% |
| CORN | 2024-08-26 | [Hot and Dry Weather Forecast for Central Brazil's Planting Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13550-hot-and-dry-weather-forecast-for-central-brazil-s-planting-season.md) | +2.6% | +6.4% |
| CORN | 2025-10-07 | [October Weather in Brazil - Hotter and Dryer Than Normal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13469-october-weather-in-brazil-hotter-and-dryer-than-normal.md) | -1.7% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- portalagromais.com.br: https://portalagromais.com.br/inmet-preve-deficit-hidrico-no-nordeste-entre-novembro-e-janeiro/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.