# EUR/USD: Downside risks toward 1.10 – ING — Octa

> ING analyst Francesco Pesole says the widening two-year swap rate differential favours the dollar, leaving EUR/USD at risk of testing 1.100. ING expects support at that level and says a break below it would likely require markets to price a 50bp Fed hike in December.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T15:10:23.713Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95678-eur-usd-downside-risks-toward-1-10-ing-octa
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker euro against the dollar raises the cost of US commodities for euro-based feed buyers and can soften dollar-quoted grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2021-05-20 | [EUR/USD to plummet towards 1.15 by year-end – CE — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47300-eur-usd-to-plummet-towards-1-15-by-year-end-ce-octa.md) | -0.1% | -2.5% |
| EURUSD | 2021-11-22 | [EUR/USD: Vulnerable to downside risks to Euro Area activity – Goldman Sachs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44251-eur-usd-vulnerable-to-downside-risks-to-euro-area-activity-goldman-sachs.md) | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| EURUSD | 2019-01-24 | [Dollar rises vs euro as ECB's Draghi warns on downside risks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61302-dollar-rises-vs-euro-as-ecb-s-draghi-warns-on-downside-risks.md) | +0.2% | -0.4% |
| EURUSD | 2019-02-07 | [EUR/USD: Hits two-week low, downside exposed as markets push back ECB rate hike bets to end 2020 — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60825-eur-usd-hits-two-week-low-downside-exposed-as-markets-push-back-ecb-rate-hike.md) | -0.8% | -1.2% |
| EURUSD | 2024-04-12 | [MUFG: Euro-Dollar Trend Heading Towards 1.05](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9976-mufg-euro-dollar-trend-heading-towards-1-05.md) | -0.6% | +0.5% |
| DXY | 2024-03-27 | [USD to remain resilient, downside risks to the GBP in the months ahead – HSBC — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31466-usd-to-remain-resilient-downside-risks-to-the-gbp-in-the-months-ahead-hsbc-octa.md) | +0.2% | +1.4% |
| DXY | 2021-05-20 | [EUR/USD to plummet towards 1.15 by year-end – CE — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47300-eur-usd-to-plummet-towards-1-15-by-year-end-ce-octa.md) | -0.0% | +1.5% |
| DXY | 2021-11-22 | [EUR/USD: Vulnerable to downside risks to Euro Area activity – Goldman Sachs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44251-eur-usd-vulnerable-to-downside-risks-to-euro-area-activity-goldman-sachs.md) | +1.2% | +0.7% |

## Sources

- octabroker.com: https://www.octabroker.com/markets/news/view/1284929/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.