# El Nino puts ₹1 lakh crore worth of farm output at risk; Rabi season faces bigger risk: SBI Research

> SBI Research estimates El Niño could cut India's agricultural output by about 3.86 crore tonnes, worth roughly ₹1 lakh crore, across Kharif and Rabi seasons. The impact has shifted to the Rabi season, and about 1.35 crore hectares could be affected.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T12:13:33.204Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95439-el-nino-puts-1-lakh-crore-worth-of-farm-output-at-risk-rabi-season-faces-bigger
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Indian crop output, especially in the Rabi season, could reduce domestic feed grain supply and raise import demand. The scale of the loss makes it a meaningful driver for regional grain prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2022-05-23 | [Rare, Third Year of La Niña Poses Another Season of Extreme Weather Risks for Crops – The Van Trump Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41335-rare-third-year-of-la-nina-poses-another-season-of-extreme-weather-risks-for.md) | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| CORN | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino and La Nina \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30153-el-nino-and-la-nina-red-river-farm-network.md) | +2.7% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | -0.0% | -8.2% |
| CORN | 2026-10-07 | [El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17047-el-nino-weather-extremes-worsen-food-security-in-east-africa-and-central.md) | -2.4% | -6.1% |
| CORN | 2023-05-25 | [El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35869-el-nino-seen-posing-larger-risk-for-robusta-coffee-less-to-arabica-reuters.md) | -4.4% | +1.4% |
| SOY | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino and La Nina \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30153-el-nino-and-la-nina-red-river-farm-network.md) | +0.1% | -1.1% |
| SOY | 2023-05-25 | [El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35869-el-nino-seen-posing-larger-risk-for-robusta-coffee-less-to-arabica-reuters.md) | +0.4% | +12.8% |
| SOY | 2020-11-17 | [#Agbiz: East African, South American crops at risk with La Niña \| OFM](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50068-agbiz-east-african-south-american-crops-at-risk-with-la-nina-ofm.md) | +3.3% | +2.7% |

## Sources

- upstox.com: https://upstox.com/news/business-news/latest-updates/el-nino-puts-1-lakh-crore-worth-of-farm-output-at-risk-rabi-season-faces-bigger-risk-sbi-research-1/article-203331/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.