# New Zealand milk powder exports set to fall as El Niño and costs bite

> A USDA report forecasts New Zealand's milk output will fall 3.5% in 2027 due to El Niño and rising costs. Whole milk powder exports are expected to drop 6.7%, with processors prioritising cheese and butter.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T12:09:59.003Z
- Category: report · region New Zealand · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95397-new-zealand-milk-powder-exports-set-to-fall-as-el-nino-and-costs-bite
- Commodities: [Nonfat Dry Milk](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NFDM.md), [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp fall in New Zealand whole milk powder exports tightens global dairy supply, which is supportive for dairy prices and for the feed and ingredient markets tied to dairy herds.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bullish ▲
- NFDM: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-01-10 | [Supply & Demand report projects lower milk production, higher exports - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55247-supply-and-demand-report-projects-lower-milk-production-higher-exports.md) | +0.2% | +0.6% |
| MILK | 2022-03-25 | [Milk Production Continues To Fall While Prices Climb - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42281-milk-production-continues-to-fall-while-prices-climb-edairy-news-english.md) | +5.6% | +8.5% |
| MILK | 2020-08-31 | [All Milk Price Rises Nearly $3.00 Compared to Month Prior - Mid-West Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51632-all-milk-price-rises-nearly-3-00-compared-to-month-prior-mid-west-farm-report.md) | -13.7% | -17.3% |
| MILK | 2024-09-22 | [USDA Cuts Milk Production Forecasts, Boosts Price Outlook Cheese Prices Expected To Average Over $1.90 Per Pound - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28460-usda-cuts-milk-production-forecasts-boosts-price-outlook-cheese-prices-expected.md) | -0.1% | -2.4% |
| MILK | 2018-06-13 | [USDA projects milk prices are set for an upward trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64545-usda-projects-milk-prices-are-set-for-an-upward-trend.md) | -0.5% | -7.7% |

## Sources

- cropli.io: https://cropli.io/dairy/2026/11/11/new-zealand-2027-milk-cut-whole-milk-powder-china

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.