# AMIS Lowers Global Wheat Trade Forecast Amid Black Sea Export Constraints, Raises Production Outlook for Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans in 2026/27

> AMIS forecasts global wheat trade in 2026/27 to fall 8.5% to 193.2 million tons, mainly due to logistical disruption in Black Sea exports from Ukraine and Russia. Global wheat production is projected to rise 5.2 million tons to 819.1 million tons, with ending stocks at 360.6 million tons. Corn production is forecast up 16 million tons to 1.318 billion tons, and soybean output is also raised.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T09:14:28.268Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95324-amis-lowers-global-wheat-trade-forecast-amid-black-sea-export-constraints
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower wheat trade with higher production and rising stocks points to ample supply outside the Black Sea, which limits the bullish impact of export disruption. Higher corn output and stronger bioethanol and feed demand are mixed for corn prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-16 | [Barley prices rise amid lower global production forecast for my 2021/22](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45622-barley-prices-rise-amid-lower-global-production-forecast-for-my-2021-22.md) | +1.1% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-12 | [WASDE Lowers Wheat, Corn and Soybean Forecasts \| AgWired](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56021-wasde-lowers-wheat-corn-and-soybean-forecasts-agwired.md) | +3.4% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-10-19 | [In October, the USDA reduced its grain crop and export forecasts for the Black Sea region 19.10.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44402-in-october-the-usda-reduced-its-grain-crop-and-export-forecasts-for-the-black.md) | +0.7% | +9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-25 | [Australia’s grain production and export outlook \| UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32090-australia-s-grain-production-and-export-outlook-ukragroconsult.md) | -0.4% | -5.2% |
| CORN | 2017-01-01 | [Corn and Soybean Production Outlook in 2017-18](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72931-corn-and-soybean-production-outlook-in-2017-18.md) | +0.3% | +2.3% |
| CORN | 2025-09-12 | [Soybeans, corn, and wheat see gains amid shifting yield and export forecasts - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7572-soybeans-corn-and-wheat-see-gains-amid-shifting-yield-and-export-forecasts.md) | +5.1% | +3.6% |
| CORN | 2017-09-19 | [Corn and soybean production outlook in 2017-18 \| Illinois Extension \| Illinois](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68799-corn-and-soybean-production-outlook-in-2017-18-illinois-extension-illinois.md) | +0.2% | +2.5% |

## Sources

- insights.tridge.com: https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLabviJtrjtmXjkPxsx7QJA9

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.