# El Niño could cost $11 trillion and push 49 million more into hunger, IFAD warns

> An IFAD report published on 9 November 2026 warns the 2026-27 El Niño could cause $11 trillion in lost global income and peak between October 2026 and January 2027. Southern African countries face over 50% drought probability, and rice regions of South and Southeast Asia are also exposed.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T09:13:45.406Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95319-el-nino-could-cost-11-trillion-and-push-49-million-more-into-hunger-ifad-warns
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Expected drought in southern African maize areas and risk to Asian rice output could tighten supplies and lift prices for feed grains and rice.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-03-11 | [A warm winter and lingering drought could set up a tough growing season in the Midwest \| Nebraska Public Media](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13201-a-warm-winter-and-lingering-drought-could-set-up-a-tough-growing-season-in-the.md) | +1.7% | -4.3% |
| CORN | 2026-10-14 | [El Niño and Brazil’s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13413-el-nino-and-brazil-s-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned.md) | -1.8% | — |
| CORN | 2019-06-15 | [Weak El Niño could continue through summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58502-weak-el-nino-could-continue-through-summer.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| CORN | 2023-11-01 | [El Niño's Rain Games: A Global Hunger Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33099-el-nino-s-rain-games-a-global-hunger-crisis.md) | -0.1% | -4.0% |
| CORN | 2017-04-21 | [El Niño awaited, more corn for ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71341-el-nino-awaited-more-corn-for-ethanol.md) | +1.4% | +2.7% |
| RICE | 2023-03-16 | [A quick transition from La Niña to El Niño could lower global crop production   - Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine - No.1 Grains Industry Magazine & Website for Africa & the Middle East](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36761-a-quick-transition-from-la-nina-to-el-nino-could-lower-global-crop-production.md) | -0.1% | +1.6% |
| RICE | 2023-11-01 | [El Niño's Rain Games: A Global Hunger Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33099-el-nino-s-rain-games-a-global-hunger-crisis.md) | +1.2% | +8.0% |
| RICE | 2026-05-13 | [El Niño fears push rice importers to build stocks as Thailand watches drought risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19304-el-nino-fears-push-rice-importers-to-build-stocks-as-thailand-watches-drought.md) | +7.7% | +2.4% |

## Sources

- agronewstoday.com: https://agronewstoday.com/article/ifad-el-nino-income-losses-small-farmers

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.