# Oat Market Analysis – Flat Physical Prices, Firmer Futures, Black Sea Risk — CMB News

> European feed oat prices stayed flat while CBOT oat futures edged higher alongside a wheat rally driven by Black Sea tensions. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi ended without a breakthrough on shipping or security guarantees.

- Date: 2026-11-12 · published 2026-11-12T09:05:57.287Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95217-oat-market-analysis-flat-physical-prices-firmer-futures-black-sea-risk-cmb-news
- Commodities: [Oats](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OATS.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Black Sea shipping uncertainty supports global wheat benchmarks and may lift the broader cereals complex. Oat cash prices remain capped by ample local feed supplies and thin export demand.

## Read by commodity

- OATS: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| OATS | 2026-03-12 | [Oats can improve soil and water quality. All that’s missing is a market for them. - FoodPrint](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20236-oats-can-improve-soil-and-water-quality-all-that-s-missing-is-a-market-for-them.md) | +2.3% | -6.5% |
| OATS | 2026-06-15 | [Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14105-focus-russian-attacks-could-cut-ukraine-grain-exports-by-a-third-reuters.md) | +2.3% | +1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-31 | [Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18379-wheat-futures-rally-on-black-sea-escalation-as-market-tests-key-resistance.md) | -1.7% | +3.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-30 | [Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39027-grain-market-braces-for-price-flurry-as-black-sea-corridor-in-doubt.md) | -5.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-31 | [Wheat futures jump as Russia pulls out of Black Sea agreement \| CBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39158-wheat-futures-jump-as-russia-pulls-out-of-black-sea-agreement-cbc-news.md) | -5.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-31 | [Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39157-wheat-futures-jump-hitting-record-high-in-sydney-after-russia-exits-black-sea.md) | -5.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-31 | [Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17937-wheat-black-sea-risks-are-driving-up-wheat-prices.md) | +2.2% | +6.1% |

## Sources

- commodity-board.com: https://commodity-board.com/oats-hold-steady-while-wheat-rallies-on-black-sea-tensions

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.