# Soil moisture declines in Mato Grosso and rainfall remains below average

> Producers in Mato Grosso report rain arriving sporadically, and soybean leaves are curling under intense heat. NASA soil-moisture estimates show 87% of the state under water deficit as of November 11, with almost half under extreme deficit, and drier conditions also in Bahia and Tocantins. Conab says no significant yield loss is currently visible in Brazil, though some areas may fall short of projections.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T06:11:38.756Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/95021-soil-moisture-declines-in-mato-grosso-and-rainfall-remains-below-average
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Dry soil during soybean planting and early development in Brazil's main producing state raises the risk of yield shortfalls that could tighten soybean meal supply and support prices. Conab's current view of no major loss limits the near-term price impact.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-09-10 | [Low Soil Moisture in Mato Grosso May Delay Start of Soy Planting](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13476-low-soil-moisture-in-mato-grosso-may-delay-start-of-soy-planting.md) | +3.8% | +1.0% |
| SOY | 2021-08-12 | [India gets below-average monsoon rains for second straight week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45522-india-gets-below-average-monsoon-rains-for-second-straight-week.md) | -3.4% | -10.4% |
| SOY | 2022-11-25 | [Irregular Rains and Dry Pockets Worry Farmers in Mato Grosso](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13686-irregular-rains-and-dry-pockets-worry-farmers-in-mato-grosso.md) | -0.4% | +2.2% |
| SOY | 2024-04-01 | [The 2023-24 harvest was marked by lower rainfall in Mato Grosso - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13580-the-2023-24-harvest-was-marked-by-lower-rainfall-in-mato-grosso-revista-cultivar.md) | -0.5% | -2.7% |
| SOY | 2019-12-31 | [Contrasting soil moisture picture between East and Western Europe: Grain Market Daily \| AHDB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55526-contrasting-soil-moisture-picture-between-east-and-western-europe-grain-market.md) | -0.5% | -4.9% |
| SBM | 2024-04-01 | [The 2023-24 harvest was marked by lower rainfall in Mato Grosso - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13580-the-2023-24-harvest-was-marked-by-lower-rainfall-in-mato-grosso-revista-cultivar.md) | -1.5% | +0.9% |
| SBM | 2020-11-30 | [Rainfall Deficit in Brazil Continues to Be a Major Concern](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50004-rainfall-deficit-in-brazil-continues-to-be-a-major-concern.md) | -2.4% | +4.2% |
| SBM | 2019-11-07 | [Global Soil Moisture Anomalies And 3-Month Trend - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55986-global-soil-moisture-anomalies-and-3-month-trend-climate-impact-company.md) | +1.7% | +0.2% |

## Sources

- theagribiz.com: https://www.theagribiz.com/agronegocio/umidade-do-solo-diminui-em-mato-grosso-e-chuva-continua-abaixo-da-media/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.