# HLIB Research: Middle East tensions to lift near-term palm oil prices

> Hong Leong Investment Bank raised its 2026 average crude palm oil price forecast by RM150 to RM4,350 per ton, expecting a Q2 peak of RM4,500-4,600. The bank cited the Iran conflict's effects on energy, fertiliser and logistics, along with EPA renewable fuel standards.

- Date: 2026-04-02 · published 2026-04-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Malaysia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9476-hlib-research-middle-east-tensions-to-lift-near-term-palm-oil-prices
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Elevated crude strengthens biodiesel economics and supports vegetable oil demand, while rising fertiliser costs may shift acreage toward soybeans and limit long-term palm gains.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2024-10-03 | [Malaysian Palm Oil Prices Climb Due To Middle East Tensions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7767-malaysian-palm-oil-prices-climb-due-to-middle-east-tensions.md) | -0.9% | +1.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-29 | [China's Palm, Soybean, and Rapeseed Oil Futures Rise; Crude Up Over 2% on Middle East Tensions \| Gate News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10975-china-s-palm-soybean-and-rapeseed-oil-futures-rise-crude-up-over-2-on-middle.md) | +4.8% | +1.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2024-10-08 | [CO Futures Close Higher Amid Middle East Tensions, Crude Oil Rally – MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7765-co-futures-close-higher-amid-middle-east-tensions-crude-oil-rally-mpoc.md) | -0.9% | +10.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-07-20 | [Palm oil futures hit four-month high as Black Sea tensions escalate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11938-palm-oil-futures-hit-four-month-high-as-black-sea-tensions-escalate.md) | +1.6% | -2.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-03-11 | [Crude oil surge likely to support palm prices \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15488-crude-oil-surge-likely-to-support-palm-prices-the-star.md) | +2.4% | +4.1% |
| SBO | 2024-10-03 | [Malaysian Palm Oil Prices Climb Due To Middle East Tensions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7767-malaysian-palm-oil-prices-climb-due-to-middle-east-tensions.md) | +0.1% | +3.6% |
| SBO | 2026-08-29 | [China's Palm, Soybean, and Rapeseed Oil Futures Rise; Crude Up Over 2% on Middle East Tensions \| Gate News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10975-china-s-palm-soybean-and-rapeseed-oil-futures-rise-crude-up-over-2-on-middle.md) | +4.8% | -0.8% |
| SBO | 2023-07-20 | [Palm oil futures hit four-month high as Black Sea tensions escalate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11938-palm-oil-futures-hit-four-month-high-as-black-sea-tensions-escalate.md) | +7.5% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- nst.com.my: https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2026/04/1408592/hlib-research-middle-east-tensions-lift-near-term-palm-oil

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.