# Winter Outlook 2026-27: All Eyes on El Niño

> A strong El Niño is already in place, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures about 2°C above normal from August through October, the second-warmest on record for that period. The North Carolina climate outlook expects the event to last through most of winter and to bring changes to temperatures, precipitation and drought conditions.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T00:15:50.348Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/94454-winter-outlook-2026-27-all-eyes-on-el-nino
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño tends to shift rainfall patterns across major crop regions, which can affect planting and yield outlooks for grains and oilseeds in the coming season. The direct price effect for feed buyers is still uncertain at this stage.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-07-12 | [El Niño Outlook for July 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69876-el-nino-outlook-for-july-2017.md) | -4.1% | -5.2% |
| CORN | 2017-04-06 | [El Niño Outlook for April 2017 \| WeatherTiger](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71427-el-nino-outlook-for-april-2017-weathertiger.md) | +0.6% | -0.3% |
| CORN | 2020-04-30 | [Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - April 2020 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53555-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-april-2020-climas.md) | +1.9% | +2.3% |
| CORN | 2026-09-29 | [El Niño 2026/27: the signals SA farmers should look out for](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17401-el-nino-2026-27-the-signals-sa-farmers-should-look-out-for.md) | -4.3% | -8.8% |
| CORN | 2026-10-08 | [2026-27 Winter weather outlook \| The More You Grow \| Corteva Agriscience](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17048-2026-27-winter-weather-outlook-the-more-you-grow-corteva-agriscience.md) | -2.4% | -5.9% |
| SOY | 2017-07-12 | [El Niño Outlook for July 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69876-el-nino-outlook-for-july-2017.md) | -3.5% | -6.1% |
| SOY | 2017-04-06 | [El Niño Outlook for April 2017 \| WeatherTiger](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71427-el-nino-outlook-for-april-2017-weathertiger.md) | +0.4% | +2.2% |
| SOY | 2020-04-30 | [Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - April 2020 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53555-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-april-2020-climas.md) | -0.2% | +1.8% |

## Sources

- climate.ncsu.edu: https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2026/11/winter-outlook-2026-27-all-eyes-on-el-nino/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.