# Fertiliser, then food: 2027-28 costs are being priced in now

> Fertiliser contracts are being set now for 2027 and 2028 as the Gulf supplies a large share of seaborne urea, sulfur and ammonia. Qatar has halted urea, ammonia and sulfur production after damage to its plants, and the World Bank projects urea up nearly 60% this year.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-12T00:12:45.673Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/94411-fertiliser-then-food-2027-28-costs-are-being-priced-in-now
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Fertiliser bought this autumn is applied in spring and sets the 2027 harvest size, so higher input costs either cut yields or pass through into crop prices. Reopening the strait this winter is unlikely to reverse the price level before 2028, supporting grain and oilseed prices over the medium term.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2022-05-31 | [Why fertiliser prices are soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41723-why-fertiliser-prices-are-soaring.md) | -8.8% | -13.2% |
| UREA | 2026-03-05 | [Fertiliser costs are soaring amid war in the Middle East. Will your grocery bill follow?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6256-fertiliser-costs-are-soaring-amid-war-in-the-middle-east-will-your-grocery-bill.md) | +3.0% | +20.1% |
| UREA | 2026-03-05 | [How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk.md) | +3.0% | +20.1% |
| UREA | 2025-07-02 | [Farmers Can't Catch a Break: Fertilizer Prices, Compared to Corn Prices, Are Now Some of the Worst in History - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23691-farmers-can-t-catch-a-break-fertilizer-prices-compared-to-corn-prices-are-now.md) | +6.1% | +7.6% |
| UREA | 2021-09-21 | [Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45024-food-prices-poised-to-surge-with-fertilizer-at-highest-in-years.md) | +2.7% | +40.3% |
| CORN | 2022-05-31 | [Why fertiliser prices are soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41723-why-fertiliser-prices-are-soaring.md) | -0.8% | -2.6% |
| CORN | 2026-03-05 | [How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk.md) | +2.4% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2021-09-21 | [Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45024-food-prices-poised-to-surge-with-fertilizer-at-highest-in-years.md) | +1.8% | +1.7% |

## Sources

- geopolitiqs.com: https://geopolitiqs.com/tn/2026-11-11/hormuz-fertiliser-and-food

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.