# Urea prices test 2023 lows as China weighs up return to global market

> Global urea prices have fallen since peaking in late February 2024, with Middle East granular spot values dropping from about $385/t fob to below $285/t fob within two months. Recent tenders in Indonesia and Qatar cleared at about $290 to $306/t fob. Supply has become more assured while seasonal demand in the US and Europe wanes, and China is weighing a return to the global market.

- Date: 2024-04-29 · published 2024-04-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9420-urea-prices-test-2023-lows-as-china-weighs-up-return-to-global-market
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Ample supply, weaker seasonal demand and a possible return of Chinese exports point to continued downward pressure on urea prices, which feeds into higher nitrogen input costs for feed grain producers.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2024-05-01 | 1 | -7.4% | -3.6 | Published two days before the drop, it describes urea prices testing 2023 lows as supply becomes more assured and China weighs returning to exports; this bearish supply and sentiment backdrop could feed a sharp one-day decline. |
| UREA | 2024-04-30 | 1 | -7.4% | -3.6 | Reports urea falling toward 2023 lows with Middle East granular down from $385 to under $285/t fob as supply improves, seasonal demand wanes and China weighs a return, which is the bearish backdrop for a sharp one-day drop. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2024-04-21 | [Urea Market Set to Dip as China Returns, India Cuts Imports \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30660-urea-market-set-to-dip-as-china-returns-india-cuts-imports-cz-app.md) | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| UREA | 2021-07-30 | [China's return to the international urea market ends bull run](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46374-china-s-return-to-the-international-urea-market-ends-bull-run.md) | -2.2% | -2.1% |
| UREA | 2026-10-08 | [Urea Prices Drop in India as China Reshapes Fertilizer Markets Across the Americas](https://feedsoft.ai/events/658-urea-prices-drop-in-india-as-china-reshapes-fertilizer-markets-across-the.md) | +2.3% | +2.6% |
| UREA | 2020-05-01 | [India's return factored in as worldwide urea prices continue to tumble](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53442-india-s-return-factored-in-as-worldwide-urea-prices-continue-to-tumble.md) | -16.7% | -25.7% |
| UREA | 2021-04-09 | [PWNI continues to descend as urea market seeks post India price floor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47906-pwni-continues-to-descend-as-urea-market-seeks-post-india-price-floor.md) | -1.3% | -3.7% |

## Sources

- profercy.com: https://www.profercy.com/insights/urea-prices-test-2023-lows-as-china-weighs-up-return-to-global-market

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.