# IKAR raises grain export estimate

> IKAR raised its stress-scenario forecast for Russian grain exports in the current agricultural season to 36.5 million tonnes from 35 million, including wheat exports of 30 million tonnes instead of 29 million. It also cut its overall export estimate to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, with the wheat estimate reduced to 39.5 million from 42 million tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T19:38:53.725Z
- Category: trade · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/94059-ikar-raises-grain-export-estimate
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

The higher stress-case projection points to more grain reaching export markets than previously expected, but the lower overall forecast still signals tighter Russian export availability than the prior estimate. This is potentially supportive for global wheat prices, though the net effect depends on which forecast scenario materializes.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-02-11 | [France wheat export estimates increase \| 2021-02-11  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48564-france-wheat-export-estimates-increase-2021-02-11-world-grain.md) | +9.3% | +9.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-11-06 | [EXPORT UNCERTAINTIES – GrainsWest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27386-export-uncertainties-grainswest.md) | -0.9% | -2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-02-28 | [Grain Export From Russia To Gear Down](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72348-grain-export-from-russia-to-gear-down.md) | +1.1% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-25 | [Russian Grain Exports Slowed](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62870-russian-grain-exports-slowed.md) | +1.8% | +8.0% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-13 | [EU wheat rises as export demand stirs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5626-eu-wheat-rises-as-export-demand-stirs.md) | +5.7% | +2.3% |
| CORN | 2018-06-11 | [Corn, ethanol exports on pace to top estimates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64528-corn-ethanol-exports-on-pace-to-top-estimates.md) | -3.5% | -5.6% |
| CORN | 2024-03-25 | [Ukraine grain exports rise on week, lag on year \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14318-ukraine-grain-exports-rise-on-week-lag-on-year-latest-market-news.md) | -4.9% | -6.9% |
| CORN | 2020-08-18 | [Ukrainian seaports tripled grain exports in July](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51460-ukrainian-seaports-tripled-grain-exports-in-july.md) | -0.0% | +5.4% |

## Sources

- agrobook.ru: https://agrobook.ru/news/101463/ikar-povysil-ocenku-eksporta-zerna

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.