# World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says | Reuters

> The IEA said global oil supply is expected to drop by 8 million barrels per day in March, almost 8% of world demand, due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day. The agency warned losses will grow without a rapid restart of shipping.

- Date: 2026-03-12 · published 2026-03-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9389-world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-on-middle-east-war-iea-says
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

A supply shock of this size is the largest on record and tightens energy and fertilizer markets, raising input costs for feed producers. Prices are likely to stay elevated while the strait remains closed.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-15 | 5 | +17.6% | 3.2 | The IEA projected an 8 mb/d supply loss in March, which reinforces the supply shock and the tight product markets behind diesel's rally. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2026-07-31 | [Oil prices seen gaining as Middle East supply disruptions persist: Reuters poll \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18513-oil-prices-seen-gaining-as-middle-east-supply-disruptions-persist-reuters-poll.md) | -7.4% | -0.3% |
| WTI | 2026-05-12 | [US EIA concedes Middle East supply disruptions are far worse than prior estimates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19444-us-eia-concedes-middle-east-supply-disruptions-are-far-worse-than-prior.md) | +10.6% | -9.7% |
| WTI | 2018-03-09 | [IEA cuts 2026 oil supply forecast as Mideast recovery slips to 2027](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66170-iea-cuts-2026-oil-supply-forecast-as-mideast-recovery-slips-to-2027.md) | +1.7% | +3.2% |
| WTI | 2024-09-10 | [US EIA lifts oil demand forecast, says prices will recover to above $80/bbl \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10170-us-eia-lifts-oil-demand-forecast-says-prices-will-recover-to-above-80-bbl.md) | +2.1% | +11.9% |
| WTI | 2023-09-13 | [OPEC+ cuts to tighten oil market sharply in fourth quarter, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34016-opec-cuts-to-tighten-oil-market-sharply-in-fourth-quarter-iea-says-reuters.md) | +2.6% | -3.3% |
| BRENT | 2026-07-31 | [Oil prices seen gaining as Middle East supply disruptions persist: Reuters poll \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18513-oil-prices-seen-gaining-as-middle-east-supply-disruptions-persist-reuters-poll.md) | -4.9% | -0.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-05-12 | [US EIA concedes Middle East supply disruptions are far worse than prior estimates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19444-us-eia-concedes-middle-east-supply-disruptions-are-far-worse-than-prior.md) | +8.8% | -11.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-03-09 | [IEA cuts 2026 oil supply forecast as Mideast recovery slips to 2027](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66170-iea-cuts-2026-oil-supply-forecast-as-mideast-recovery-slips-to-2027.md) | +1.0% | +4.8% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-middle-east-war-iea-says-2026-03-12/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.