# El Niño Could Trigger $11 Trillion Losses and Food Insecurity, Warns IFAD at COP31

> An IFAD report released at COP31 estimates that El Niño could cause $11 trillion in global income losses over five to six years and worsen food insecurity. It says the 2026–27 event could peak between October 2026 and January 2027, with drought risks in southern Africa and vulnerabilities in rice-producing parts of South and Southeast Asia; cited estimates suggest 49 million more people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T18:17:08.181Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/93885-el-nino-could-trigger-11-trillion-losses-and-food-insecurity-warns-ifad-at-cop31
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Drought and other climate shocks could reduce crop output in key producing regions, tightening supplies and supporting prices for affected crops, including rice and grains. The report also highlights that coordinated support for farm inputs, markets and finance could mitigate income losses.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-06-17 | [As El Niño Wanes, Food Security Pain Remains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29663-as-el-nino-wanes-food-security-pain-remains.md) | +1.8% | -20.8% |
| RICE | 2023-10-30 | [El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity - NASA Science](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33546-el-nino-forecast-to-contribute-to-food-insecurity-nasa-science.md) | -0.0% | +6.3% |
| RICE | 2023-07-12 | [2023/53 “Rice Production and Food Security in Southeast Asia under Threat from El Niño” by Elyssa Ludher and Paul Teng – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5209-2023-53-rice-production-and-food-security-in-southeast-asia-under-threat-from.md) | -18.7% | -17.1% |
| RICE | 2023-03-16 | [A quick transition from La Niña to El Niño could lower global crop production   - Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine - No.1 Grains Industry Magazine & Website for Africa & the Middle East](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36761-a-quick-transition-from-la-nina-to-el-nino-could-lower-global-crop-production.md) | -0.1% | +1.6% |
| RICE | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -3.3% | -0.3% |
| CORN | 2024-06-17 | [As El Niño Wanes, Food Security Pain Remains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29663-as-el-nino-wanes-food-security-pain-remains.md) | -4.3% | -9.0% |
| CORN | 2024-04-24 | [NASA SVS \| El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30653-nasa-svs-el-nino-forecast-to-contribute-to-food-insecurity.md) | -0.5% | +3.3% |
| CORN | 2023-10-30 | [El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity - NASA Science](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33546-el-nino-forecast-to-contribute-to-food-insecurity-nasa-science.md) | -3.3% | -6.3% |

## Sources

- downtoearth.org.in: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/cop31-el-ni%C3%B1o-could-cause-11-trillion-in-global-income-losses-threaten-food-security-ifad-warns

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.