# Ivory Coast cocoa production could fall 25% from El Nino, weather agency says

> Ivory Coast’s weather agency warned that an exceptionally strong El Niño could reduce 2026/27 cocoa production by 21% to 25%. It cited lower rainfall, hotter conditions, a shorter rainy season and a longer dry season, which could damage young pods and trees. The country had already paused sales of 2026/27 main-crop export contracts after selling about 1.15 million tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T15:19:01.580Z
- Category: weather · region Ivory Coast · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/93744-ivory-coast-cocoa-production-could-fall-25-from-el-nino-weather-agency-says
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp crop reduction in the world’s largest cocoa producer would tighten global cocoa availability and support prices. The forecast also adds uncertainty to export-contract supply while the country waits for a clearer harvest estimate.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-09-13 | [El Niño weather events could improve cocoa farmers’ income](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62949-el-nino-weather-events-could-improve-cocoa-farmers-income.md) | +0.3% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2018-11-12 | [Weather pivotal in 2018 crop production - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61891-weather-pivotal-in-2018-crop-production-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -6.7% | +0.1% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2017-12-15 | [2017 Ag review: Crop production and weather](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67335-2017-ag-review-crop-production-and-weather.md) | +2.7% | +2.5% |
| CORN | 2018-08-28 | [2018 Central Ohio Fall Weather Predictions and El Nino Update \| Fruit, Vegetable, & Specialty Crop News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63456-2018-central-ohio-fall-weather-predictions-and-el-nino-update-fruit-vegetable.md) | +0.8% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2018-09-13 | [El Niño weather events could improve cocoa farmers’ income](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62949-el-nino-weather-events-could-improve-cocoa-farmers-income.md) | +0.1% | +2.8% |
| SOY | 2018-11-12 | [Weather pivotal in 2018 crop production - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61891-weather-pivotal-in-2018-crop-production-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +1.9% | +4.5% |
| SOY | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -2.0% | -2.1% |

## Sources

- cnbcafrica.com: https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/ivory-coast-cocoa-production-could-fall-25-from-el-nino-weather-agency-says

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.