# China raises soybean import estimate to 111.6 mln tons but expects lower purchases next season

> China’s Ministry of Agriculture raised its 2025/26 soybean import estimate to 111.62 million tons, while leaving its 2026/27 forecast at 95.5 million tons. It also forecast lower soybean consumption next season and reduced its 2025/26 edible-oil import estimate by 700,000 tons, citing high palm oil prices, weak import margins and Black Sea sunflower oil shipment disruptions.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T15:17:04.592Z
- Category: report · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/93734-china-raises-soybean-import-estimate-to-111-6-mln-tons-but-expects-lower
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Lower forecast soybean imports and consumption point to weaker Chinese demand for export supplies next season, which could weigh on soybean prices. Reduced edible-oil imports also imply softer demand for vegetable oils, including soybean oil.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-04-20 | [China sees lower soybean, pork imports in 2026 and over next decade, report shows - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19724-china-sees-lower-soybean-pork-imports-in-2026-and-over-next-decade-report-shows.md) | -0.3% | +0.8% |
| SOY | 2024-06-12 | [China May soybean imports fall 11.6% on year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14742-china-may-soybean-imports-fall-11-6-on-year.md) | -0.3% | -3.0% |
| SOY | 2025-05-12 | [China forecasts lower soybean imports in 2025/26 on plans to reduce soymeal use — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24650-china-forecasts-lower-soybean-imports-in-2025-26-on-plans-to-reduce-soymeal-use.md) | +0.6% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2021-08-12 | [Casde: China cuts 20/2021 soybean imports, demand estimates - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45563-casde-china-cuts-20-2021-soybean-imports-demand-estimates-fastmarkets.md) | -3.4% | -10.4% |
| SOY | 2025-04-14 | [China's March imports of soybeans, iron ore drop; crude oil rises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14670-china-s-march-imports-of-soybeans-iron-ore-drop-crude-oil-rises.md) | -1.3% | +2.2% |
| SBO | 2022-01-19 | [Lower US Soybean Meal Export Projection](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43208-lower-us-soybean-meal-export-projection.md) | +1.8% | +5.3% |
| SBO | 2018-08-08 | [Bigger crop estimates send soybeans, corn lower - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8653-bigger-crop-estimates-send-soybeans-corn-lower-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -1.7% | -1.4% |
| SBO | 2026-09-30 | [BAGE forecasts Argentina’s soybean crop at 53.6 mln tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13774-bage-forecasts-argentina-s-soybean-crop-at-53-6-mln-tons.md) | +3.1% | +4.1% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/china-raises-soybean-import-estimate-to-111-6-mln-tons-but-expects-lower-purchases-next-season/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.