# El Niño could reduce Brazil’s soybean crop by 17.6 mln tons

> A Serasa Experian study estimates that a strong El Niño could reduce Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop to 163.6 million tonnes, 17.6 million tonnes below a neutral-weather scenario. The article says current weather poses no immediate threat, with January conditions expected to be important for yields.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T09:17:05.120Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/93327-el-nino-could-reduce-brazil-s-soybean-crop-by-17-6-mln-tons
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

If the adverse weather scenario materializes, reduced Brazilian output could tighten global soybean supplies and lift prices. The price risk remains conditional because the crop is not currently under immediate weather threat.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-10-17 | [La Nina’s Return Could Herald Weak Brazilian Corn, Soybean Crops \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13541-la-nina-s-return-could-herald-weak-brazilian-corn-soybean-crops-cz-app.md) | +1.8% | +2.5% |
| SOY | 2023-12-18 | [El Niño Fuels Crop Issues In Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13605-el-nino-fuels-crop-issues-in-brazil.md) | -1.2% | -8.4% |
| SOY | 2023-11-20 | [Brazilian soybean crop faces problems, and replanting could cut future corn area](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13613-brazilian-soybean-crop-faces-problems-and-replanting-could-cut-future-corn-area.md) | -0.8% | -1.0% |
| SOY | 2025-12-10 | [2025/26 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 176.0 Million Tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13456-2025-26-brazil-soybean-estimate-unchanged-at-176-0-million-tons.md) | -2.3% | -3.7% |
| SOY | 2026-10-14 | [El Niño and Brazil’s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13413-el-nino-and-brazil-s-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned.md) | -2.3% | — |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/el-nino-could-reduce-brazils-soybean-crop-by-17-6-mln-tons/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.