# AMIS forecasts 8.5% decline in global wheat trade amid Black Sea disruptions

> AMIS cut its 2026/27 global wheat-trade forecast by 2.2 million tonnes from October, to 193.2 million tonnes, citing Black Sea logistical constraints. It raised its wheat-production forecast by 5.2 million tonnes and ending-stocks forecast by 7.6 million tonnes; the report also increased its corn-production forecast by 16 million tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T09:15:36.396Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/93324-amis-forecasts-8-5-decline-in-global-wheat-trade-amid-black-sea-disruptions
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced Black Sea shipment capacity could tighten export availability and support wheat prices in importing markets, while higher production and stocks are bearish for the broader balance. The larger corn crop outlook adds pressure to corn prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-01 | [IKON forecasts total wheat, barley, canola at 48.1Mt - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34069-ikon-forecasts-total-wheat-barley-canola-at-48-1mt-grain-central.md) | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2020-06-12 | [Survey: Wheat exports from the Black Sea region are](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52472-survey-wheat-exports-from-the-black-sea-region-are.md) | -1.3% | -4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2020-06-12 | [Black Sea Wheat Exports Seen Steady In 2020/21: Poll \| ESM Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52469-black-sea-wheat-exports-seen-steady-in-2020-21-poll-esm-magazine.md) | -1.3% | -4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2025-08-19 | [Global wheat exports update: Russia’s wheat exports rise to 732,000 tonnes, while US exports forecast at 875 million bushels - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14185-global-wheat-exports-update-russia-s-wheat-exports-rise-to-732-000-tonnes-while.md) | -1.7% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-02-22 | [Global wheat shipments withstood the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14326-global-wheat-shipments-withstood-the-shock-of-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine.md) | -4.3% | -4.8% |
| CORN | 2020-05-13 | [USDA forecasts intense competition on wheat, corn - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53176-usda-forecasts-intense-competition-on-wheat-corn-grain-central.md) | -0.3% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2025-10-03 | [Global poultry proves resilient despite market disruptions \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22573-global-poultry-proves-resilient-despite-market-disruptions-meat-poultry.md) | +0.3% | +1.2% |
| CORN | 2022-01-13 | [Wheat Drops With U.S. Forecasting Bigger Global Reserves 13.01.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43104-wheat-drops-with-u-s-forecasting-bigger-global-reserves-13-01-2022.md) | -1.3% | +5.3% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/amis-forecasts-8-5-decline-in-global-wheat-trade-amid-black-sea-disruptions/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.