# USDA sharply increased forecasts for global wheat production and stocks, including for Ukraine, but quotes rose

> USDA’s November outlook raised its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast by 5.1 million tonnes to 827.5 million tonnes and increased projected beginning stocks. It also lifted Ukraine’s wheat harvest estimate by 0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million, while cutting its export forecasts for Ukraine and Russia by 1 million tonnes each; wheat futures nevertheless rose alongside corn.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T09:05:58.520Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/93239-usda-sharply-increased-forecasts-for-global-wheat-production-and-stocks
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher global production and stocks, plus a larger Ukrainian crop, add to available supply and weigh on wheat prices. Reduced export forecasts for Ukraine and Russia offer some offset, while stronger corn prices helped lift wheat futures in the session.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-11 | [USDA sharply raises global barley production forecast, putting pressure on prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21574-usda-sharply-raises-global-barley-production-forecast-putting-pressure-on-prices.md) | -0.3% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-01-15 | [USDA raises projections for US, global wheat ending stocks \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21103-usda-raises-projections-for-us-global-wheat-ending-stocks-world-grain.md) | -1.3% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-09 | [USDA cuts global ending stocks for beans, wheat, cotton and corn - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42671-usda-cuts-global-ending-stocks-for-beans-wheat-cotton-and-corn-pro-farmer.md) | +0.4% | +18.0% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-08 | [PF Report Reaction: USDA cuts global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31133-pf-report-reaction-usda-cuts-global-ending-stocks-for-corn-soybeans-wheat-and.md) | -7.4% | -6.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-12 | [Wheat prices fall despite a downgrade in the USDA’s global production forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5522-wheat-prices-fall-despite-a-downgrade-in-the-usda-s-global-production-forecast.md) | +10.5% | +5.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-01-15 | [USDA raises projections for US, global wheat ending stocks \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21103-usda-raises-projections-for-us-global-wheat-ending-stocks-world-grain.md) | +0.7% | +6.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-09-18 | [US wheat futures slip after USDA boosts global ending stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22928-us-wheat-futures-slip-after-usda-boosts-global-ending-stocks.md) | -1.8% | -5.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-12-19 | [USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21549-usda-lifts-2025-26-global-wheat-stocks-forecast-as-higher-output-offsets-record.md) | +3.2% | +1.2% |

## Sources

- graintrade.com.ua: https://graintrade.com.ua/en/novosti/usda-rizko-zbilshiv-prognozi-svitovogo-virobnitctva-ta-zapasiv-pshenitci-zokrema-j-dlya-uk.html

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.