# High palm oil inventories set to decline in 1Q2027 as output slows, El Niño risks loom — analysts

> Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose for a seventh consecutive month to a record 3.62 million tonnes in October 2026, as production gains outweighed stronger exports. Analysts expect inventories to remain high through the end of 2026, then decline in early 2027 as seasonal production growth slows; El Niño-related dry weather and firm biofuel demand could tighten supply further.

- Date: 2026-11-11 · published 2026-11-11T06:08:17.443Z
- Category: weather · region Malaysia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/92991-high-palm-oil-inventories-set-to-decline-in-1q2027-as-output-slows-el-nino
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Elevated inventories are weighing on near-term CPO prices, while a seasonal stock draw and potential weather-related production losses could lend support in early 2027.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-28 | [Malaysia 2024 palm oil output to rise despite El Nino - govt \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34218-malaysia-2024-palm-oil-output-to-rise-despite-el-nino-govt-reuters.md) | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-03-09 | [Palm Oil Prices to Drop as Production Rebounds, Demand Slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72110-palm-oil-prices-to-drop-as-production-rebounds-demand-slows.md) | -1.8% | -5.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-03-07 | [Global palm oil output seen rising 11pc in 2017 \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72112-global-palm-oil-output-seen-rising-11pc-in-2017-malay-mail.md) | -4.1% | -7.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-10-04 | [Palm oil production to revive following departure of El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5643-palm-oil-production-to-revive-following-departure-of-el-nino.md) | +0.9% | +2.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-03-09 | [Global palm oil output likely to increase by six mln tonnes — Expert \| Borneo Post Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72113-global-palm-oil-output-likely-to-increase-by-six-mln-tonnes-expert-borneo-post.md) | -1.8% | -5.3% |

## Sources

- theedgemalaysia.com: https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/825265

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.