# EUR/USD outlook: Surges on much weaker than expected US NFP numbers

> EUR/USD rallied about 1.2% on Friday, its biggest one-day gain since March 2016, after US nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. The move nearly retraced the prior two-week decline in a single session.

- Date: 2024-08-02 · published 2024-08-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/9283-eur-usd-outlook-surges-on-much-weaker-than-expected-us-nfp-numbers
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Weak US labor data raises expectations of faster Fed rate cuts, which weakens the dollar and can lift dollar-priced commodities and shift currency-driven export competitiveness for US feed grains.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2024-08-02 | 1 | +1.2% | 3.7 | Much weaker-than-expected US payrolls triggered the euro's largest one-day gain since 2016, directly explaining the 1.16% move via USD weakness. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2020-03-23 | [EUR/USD: FED Unlimited QE Sees Euro Gains But Nordea Unwilling To Call For Weaker Dollar Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11349-eur-usd-fed-unlimited-qe-sees-euro-gains-but-nordea-unwilling-to-call-for.md) | +3.5% | +1.9% |
| EURUSD | 2025-03-07 | [US dollar sags after weaker-than-expected jobs data, Fed's Powell comments](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5802-us-dollar-sags-after-weaker-than-expected-jobs-data-fed-s-powell-comments.md) | +0.4% | +2.2% |
| EURUSD | 2021-11-23 | [Dollar gains, euro recovers on better than expected data \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11254-dollar-gains-euro-recovers-on-better-than-expected-data-reuters.md) | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| EURUSD | 2016-06-28 | [EU wheat prices weaken as firmer euro dents export outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11730-eu-wheat-prices-weaken-as-firmer-euro-dents-export-outlook.md) | +0.5% | -0.4% |
| EURUSD | 2026-07-27 | [Euro: September hike outlook offers support against US Dollar – UOB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18560-euro-september-hike-outlook-offers-support-against-us-dollar-uob.md) | +1.2% | +2.6% |
| DXY | 2023-04-12 | [Oil rises 2% on lower-than-expected US inflation data \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36559-oil-rises-2-on-lower-than-expected-us-inflation-data-reuters.md) | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| DXY | 2023-11-15 | [Ringgit Gains Ground As US Dollar Weakens On Lower-Than-Expected CPI Data](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33435-ringgit-gains-ground-as-us-dollar-weakens-on-lower-than-expected-cpi-data.md) | -0.9% | -0.2% |
| DXY | 2020-03-23 | [EUR/USD: FED Unlimited QE Sees Euro Gains But Nordea Unwilling To Call For Weaker Dollar Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11349-eur-usd-fed-unlimited-qe-sees-euro-gains-but-nordea-unwilling-to-call-for.md) | -2.0% | -1.7% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-outlook-surges-on-much-weaker-than-expected-us-nfp-numbers-202408021551

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.