# Canadian wheat production forecast to decline 10% in 2026/27

> USDA FAS forecasts Canada’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 36.1 million tonnes, down about 10% from the previous season’s record harvest but still the second-largest on record. Reduced harvested area, wet and cool conditions that delayed spring planting, and July heat contributed to the decline; Canadian wheat and wheat-product exports are forecast to fall 2.8%.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-11T03:08:16.828Z
- Category: weather · region Canada · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/92786-canadian-wheat-production-forecast-to-decline-10-in-2026-27
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller crop and lower export availability could tighten Canadian wheat supplies and reduce competition in international markets, lending support to wheat prices. The projected crop remains historically large, which may limit the impact.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-28 | [Australia forecasts 34% decline in wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35012-australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production.md) | -0.1% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-08 | [Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69415-wheat-production-forecast-down-nab-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-13 | [Coceral cuts EU 27 soft wheat production forecast to last year’s level](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35422-coceral-cuts-eu-27-soft-wheat-production-forecast-to-last-year-s-level.md) | +3.0% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-02 | [Analysts forecast a decrease in wheat production in Australia in the new season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25087-analysts-forecast-a-decrease-in-wheat-production-in-australia-in-the-new-season.md) | -0.8% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2019-06-21 | [Russian wheat exports forecast to decline \| 2019-06-21  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58448-russian-wheat-exports-forecast-to-decline-2019-06-21-world-grain.md) | +7.9% | -3.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-06-22 | [Plains Drought Cuts Winter Wheat Production Forecast \| Agriculture of America](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18860-plains-drought-cuts-winter-wheat-production-forecast-agriculture-of-america.md) | -5.1% | +12.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-03-29 | [Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48188-outlook-dims-for-global-spring-wheat-production.md) | -0.9% | +23.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-11-18 | [WA wheat crop forecast dives \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56007-wa-wheat-crop-forecast-dives-farm-online-act.md) | +1.7% | +10.8% |

## Sources

- millingmea.com: https://millingmea.com/canadian-wheat-production-forecast-to-decline-10-in-2026-27/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.