# India's Rice Output to Drop, Prices May Hit Record Highs

> India’s agriculture ministry projected rice production at 147 million tonnes in 2026–27, down from 154 million tonnes in 2025–26, citing lower rainfall and the use of Food Corporation of India rice stocks for ethanol. The government also limited the volume of surplus FCI rice available for ethanol and restricted broken-rice exports.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-11T00:22:06.986Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/92559-india-s-rice-output-to-drop-prices-may-hit-record-highs
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/c/ETHANOL.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller crop and limits on rice diverted to ethanol could tighten domestic availability and add upward pressure to rice prices, with potential consequences for exportable supply.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- ETHANOL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2018-08-09 | [Rice prices in India hold steady; low rainfall may hurt output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8647-rice-prices-in-india-hold-steady-low-rainfall-may-hurt-output.md) | -3.1% | +1.2% |
| RICE | 2026-10-22 | [Asia rice: Indian prices hit more than one-year high on strong rupee, tight supply - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17169-asia-rice-indian-prices-hit-more-than-one-year-high-on-strong-rupee-tight.md) | -0.4% | — |
| RICE | 2023-05-05 | [‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO   - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35870-developing-el-nino-may-hit-india-s-maize-soya-and-rice-output-says-fao-the.md) | +1.8% | -0.5% |
| RICE | 2026-09-17 | [India rice output faces biggest drop in two decades, stocks cushion exports \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17442-india-rice-output-faces-biggest-drop-in-two-decades-stocks-cushion-exports.md) | +3.0% | +9.0% |
| RICE | 2025-12-02 | [Thai Rice Prices hit near 4-month high; India prices ease on weak demand, soft rupee \| IREF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12732-thai-rice-prices-hit-near-4-month-high-india-prices-ease-on-weak-demand-soft.md) | -0.3% | -6.8% |

## Sources

- newsminimalist.com: https://www.newsminimalist.com/articles/indias-rice-output-to-drop-prices-may-hit-record-highs-8d0f1ebb

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.