# Strong El Nino could cut Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop by 9.7%

> A stress-case analysis says a strong El Niño could reduce Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop by 17.6 million tonnes, or 9.7%. Other forecasters still anticipate a record harvest, underscoring uncertainty around the weather outlook.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-10T18:12:35.790Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/92086-strong-el-nino-could-cut-brazil-s-2026-27-soybean-crop-by-9-7
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A loss of this scale would tighten global soybean supply and support soybean prices, but it is a downside scenario rather than the prevailing consensus forecast. The contrast with record-crop expectations makes weather developments and subsequent crop estimates especially important.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-10-17 | [La Nina’s Return Could Herald Weak Brazilian Corn, Soybean Crops \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13541-la-nina-s-return-could-herald-weak-brazilian-corn-soybean-crops-cz-app.md) | +1.8% | +2.5% |
| SOY | 2023-11-20 | [Brazilian soybean crop faces problems, and replanting could cut future corn area](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13613-brazilian-soybean-crop-faces-problems-and-replanting-could-cut-future-corn-area.md) | -0.8% | -1.0% |
| SOY | 2026-10-07 | [Dry spell in Brazil's soybean belt raises crop-stress risk — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13415-dry-spell-in-brazil-s-soybean-belt-raises-crop-stress-risk-brz-news.md) | -1.5% | -5.2% |
| SOY | 2020-08-24 | [La Nina could impact soybean planting in Brazil, Argentina - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51519-la-nina-could-impact-soybean-planting-in-brazil-argentina-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +5.5% | +13.5% |
| SOY | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -0.6% | +13.1% |

## Sources

- efeedlink.com: https://www.efeedlink.com/articles/strong-el-ni-o-could-cut-brazil-s-2026-27-soybean-crop-by-9-7

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.