# Nitrogen fertilizer prices: Will falling gas prices ease the market?

> European gas prices fell by nearly €20/MWh over ten days after exceeding €100/MWh in early November, partly as Iran ceasefire prospects eased geopolitical risk premiums. Lower gas costs may improve European ammonia and ammonium nitrate producers’ margins and support a gradual production recovery, although the market remains vulnerable to supply and geopolitical risks.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-10T18:11:30.736Z
- Category: macro · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/92076-nitrogen-fertilizer-prices-will-falling-gas-prices-ease-the-market
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

## Why it matters

Cheaper gas lowers a key nitrogen-fertilizer production cost and could increase supply while putting downward pressure on fertilizer prices. However, low gas stocks and risks involving the Strait of Hormuz and Algeria make that relief uncertain.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bearish ▼
- NATGAS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-07-30 | [Brazil fertilizer deliveries seen falling at least 10%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18687-brazil-fertilizer-deliveries-seen-falling-at-least-10.md) | -4.0% | -1.5% |
| UREA | 2023-03-20 | [Global Natural Gas Prices Keep Falling as Demand Weakens, Banking Crisis Weighs on Markets – LNG Recap](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37032-global-natural-gas-prices-keep-falling-as-demand-weakens-banking-crisis-weighs.md) | +0.3% | +13.2% |
| UREA | 2026-10-23 | [U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Mild Near-Term Weather - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/626-u-s-natural-gas-futures-fall-on-mild-near-term-weather-wsj.md) | -0.1% | — |
| UREA | 2022-11-29 | [Europe: Nitrates prices decline following restarts; now nearing breakeven levels](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7856-europe-nitrates-prices-decline-following-restarts-now-nearing-breakeven-levels.md) | -4.0% | -7.5% |
| UREA | 2020-03-20 | [Coronavirus impact hits western urea markets hard, east faring better for now](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54426-coronavirus-impact-hits-western-urea-markets-hard-east-faring-better-for-now.md) | -1.2% | +0.7% |
| NATGAS | 2025-02-21 | [Friday’s Insider: Urea and gas prices — market in transition — Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26365-friday-s-insider-urea-and-gas-prices-market-in-transition-fertilizer-daily.md) | -18.8% | -15.1% |
| NATGAS | 2019-09-13 | [IHS Markit: US natural gas price will fall to levels not seen since 1970s \| World Pipelines](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57254-ihs-markit-us-natural-gas-price-will-fall-to-levels-not-seen-since-1970s-world.md) | -0.1% | -13.8% |
| NATGAS | 2017-03-16 | [The Glutted World Gas Market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72173-the-glutted-world-gas-market.md) | +0.5% | +2.5% |

## Sources

- terre-net.fr: https://www.terre-net.fr/prix-des-intrants/article/905914/engrais-azotes-le-repli-du-gaz-desserre-l-etau-mais-l-accalmie-reste-fragile

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.