# $5 Corn Hinges On Critical Forty-Day Supply Threshold

> Texas A&M grain marketing economist Mark Welch says US corn prices have historically been more likely to reach $5 or higher when ending stocks fall below about 40 days of use. USDA estimates moved from roughly 35 days in September to about 41 days in October after September grain stocks exceeded expectations by around 200 million bushels and USDA raised its yield estimate by roughly two bushels per acre.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-10T18:07:14.567Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/92026-5-corn-hinges-on-critical-forty-day-supply-threshold
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

The latest balance-sheet estimates place US supplies just above the cited threshold, limiting the case for a sustained move above $5 unless stocks tighten. That supply cushion is bearish for corn price prospects and feed buyers may face less upward price pressure unless later data reduce stocks.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-01-29 | [The seasonal decline in supply raises prices on corn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61121-the-seasonal-decline-in-supply-raises-prices-on-corn.md) | -0.4% | +0.0% |
| CORN | 2026-10-08 | [USDA supply shocker knocks corn off $5 perch — for now](https://feedsoft.ai/events/430-usda-supply-shocker-knocks-corn-off-5-perch-for-now.md) | -2.4% | -5.9% |
| CORN | 2021-02-08 | [Corn Declines After U.S. Cuts Supply Outlook Less Than Forecast - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48654-corn-declines-after-u-s-cuts-supply-outlook-less-than-forecast-bloomberg.md) | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| CORN | 2024-04-04 | [Corn and soybean prices extend losses on oversupply forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30757-corn-and-soybean-prices-extend-losses-on-oversupply-forecasts.md) | -1.0% | -1.1% |
| CORN | 2024-03-04 | [Oversized US corn crop responsible for swell in global supplies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7860-oversized-us-corn-crop-responsible-for-swell-in-global-supplies.md) | +5.1% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- rfdtv.com: https://www.rfdtv.com/5-corn-hinges-on-critical-forty-day-supply-threshold

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.